2820 Hawk Dr · Denton, TX 76205

$387,685

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,036 sqft · Land · 47 Days on market

Built 2025 6,186 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. Horton is now selling in the new phase at their fabulous community of Eagle Creek in Denton and Denton ISD!! The single-story Kingston Floorplan, Elevation I, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to balance open-concept living with comfortable private spaces. The heart of the home features a seamless flow between the family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen, creating a warm and inviting environment ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with quartz countertops, 36” painted cabinets, stainless steel Frigidaire appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Quartz countertops
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $388k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-728 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Borman El (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 429 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 38% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Denton ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $255,413 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.05%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-116,622
• Equity at exit: $57,805

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-189,896
• Equity at exit: $33,520

Cash invested: $108,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76205

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,033
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,815/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,476

Max offer price $282,278

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-461	-5% $-594	+0% $-728	+5% $-862	+10% $-996
Rent	-10% $-930	-5% $-829	+0% $-728	+5% $-628	+10% $-527
Rate	-1.0pp $-533	-0.5pp $-630	base $-728	+0.5pp $-829	+1.0pp $-931

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,921
• Closing costs: $11,631
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1709 Sparrow St Denton, TX	5.0	4.0	2922	$3,300	$1.13	0d	1	0.19mi
1513 Woodpecker St Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2733	$3,500	$1.28	12d	1	0.21mi
2605 Starling St Denton, TX	5.0	3.0	2150	$2,850	$1.33	0d	1	0.30mi
2301 Ruff Rd Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,700	$1.41	26d	1	0.38mi
2201 Yellowhammer Rd Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2874	$3,150	$1.10	26d	1	0.41mi
2704 Donella Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1901	$2,500	$1.32	45d	1	0.62mi
2200 Laurel St Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,195	$1.52	45d	1	0.70mi
1403 Kendolph Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1967	$2,975	$1.51	4d	1	0.98mi
1324 Norman St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	45d	1	1.09mi
3108 Spenrock Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2124	$2,200	$1.04	46d	1	1.14mi
3117 Kappwood Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,125	$1.13	4d	1	1.16mi
3117 Kappwood Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,125	$1.13	18d	1	1.16mi
1105 Neff St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,099	$1.50	45d	1	1.19mi
1103 Neff St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	45d	1	1.20mi
1007 W Collins St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,850	$1.09	20d	1	1.20mi
3100 Hornbeam St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2572	$2,550	$0.99	45d	1	1.22mi
3121 Hornbeam St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,399	$1.30	4d	1	1.28mi
4512 Remuda Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	45d	1	1.31mi
1112 Beechwood Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1606	$2,405	$1.50	45d	1	1.31mi
101 Daugherty St Denton, TX	4.0	4.0	1458	$694	$0.48	45d	1	1.34mi
1029 Beechwood Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2105	$2,200	$1.05	45d	1	1.34mi
3128 Buckthorn Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$2,395	$1.30	45d	1	1.35mi
1120 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$2,370	$0.88	14d	1	1.36mi
3312 Stonecrop Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,200	$1.27	26d	1	1.40mi
1009 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,970	$1.34	22d	1	1.41mi
1001 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,235	$1.48	1d	1	1.41mi
4505 Merlot Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2353	$2,350	$1.00	45d	1	1.46mi
2016 Pembrooke Pl Denton, TX	4.0	3.5	2820	$3,250	$1.15	6d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-28
   listed $387,685 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,716
• − Property taxes: −$5,815
• − Insurance: −$1,938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,452
• − Management: −$2,452
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$11,278
• Taxable loss: −$15,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,794
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,978
• Household income: $68,600
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1268.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 290.7883
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $387,685 NTREIS

Property tax history

-13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $303 · +23.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.