409 Adams St · Rolla, KS 67954

$43,240

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1920 0.32 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#261 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rolla (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #220 of 280 in KS (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($299 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Morton County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,645 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.36%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $44,835
• Equity at exit: $18,269

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.59×
• Total profit: $103,984
• Equity at exit: $27,273

Cash invested: $12,107 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67954

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$227
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $649/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $378

Max offer price $43,240

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,810
• Closing costs: $1,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-06-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-13
   price $43,240
3. 2025-03-25
   listed $47,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,422
• − Property taxes: −$649
• − Insurance: −$216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$1,258
• Taxable income: $7,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,782
• After-tax cash flow: $5,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rolla
• NCES district ID: 2011190
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,916
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #12930
• State rank: #220 of 280 in KS

Livability — Rolla

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #11480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rolla, KS
• Population (ZIP): 797

Population outlook (Morton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576 people
• By 2030: 2,363 · -8.3%
• By 2040: 1,940 · -24.7%
• By 2050: 1,559 · -39.5%
• By 2075: 881 · -65.8%
• By 2100: 558 · -78.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 23% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Morton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.4) · D 12.4% · R 85.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -65.9pp · 2024: -73.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.4 2020: R+73.7 2016: R+71.1 2012: R+69.8 2008: R+65.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Current HPI: 139.9671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-09 Pending — SWKSBOR
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $43,240 SWKSBOR
• 2025-03-25 Listed $47,000 SWKSBOR