1200 W Winton Ave #204 · Hayward, CA 94545

$319,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1993 $277/sqft · 45% above area Est $221k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**CO-LISTED WITH MARLA GUERNSEY 489-0893** NEARLY NEW MANUFACTURED HOME. 2BD AND DEN DUAL PANE WINDOWS & NEW 40 GAL WATER HEATER

Key facts

• Upgraded home
• Interior paint
• Roof replacement

Tags

• UPGRADED HOME
• INTERIOR PAINT
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• EXTERIOR SIDING REPAIRS
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEWER WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Hayward Mobile C park; Senior community; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Activities available; BBQ area; Car wash area; Game room; Guest parking; On-site laundry; RV storage; Pet restrictions (number limit)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (in park), double wide; Single-story living; Entry on main/street level
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Garbage disposal; Gas range / cooktop; Free-standing range / oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom suite on main level; 1 additional bedroom on street level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower, solid surface, closet and window; Other bathroom(s) with shower-over-tub, solid surface and window; Updated baths
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Den; Main entry at street level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with cabinets; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eden Gardens Elementary (481 students, 59% FRL); Anthony W. Ochoa Middle (407 students, 77% FRL); Mt. Eden High (1,947 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $319k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $309,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,502
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: 44.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1150 W Winton Ave #229	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-1%)	2mo	$177,000	$155	93
1200 W Winton #145	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,119 (-3%)	6mo	$300,000	$268	86
1200 W Winton Ave #81	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	0mo	$264,900	$245	84
1200 W Winton Ave #86	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,090 (-5%)	1mo	$280,000	$257	84
1200 W Winton #49	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	21mo	$280,000	$243	76
1200 W Winton Ave. #233 #233	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	21mo	$138,000	$123	75
1200 W Winton Ave #90	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,010 (-12%)	2mo	$265,000	$262	70
1200 W Winton Ave #224	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-13%)	6mo	$205,000	$205	70
1200 W Winton Ave #215	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,308 (+14%)	14mo	$297,500	$227	65
1200 W Winton Ave #176	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-10%)	16mo	$165,000	$159	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-37,295
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-17,181
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94545

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $355	+0% $244	+5% $134	+10% $24
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $122	+0% $244	+5% $367	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $325	base $244	+0.5pp $162	+1.0pp $78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
946 Hohener Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$3,600	$2.51	16d	1	0.58mi
25000 Copa del Oro Dr #201 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	855	$3,000	$3.51	45d	1	0.71mi
936 Lucia Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,875	$2.13	6d	1	0.73mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22850 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1247	$4,095	$3.28	0d	1	0.77mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22846 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1053	$3,795	$3.60	0d	1	0.77mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22856 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	744	$3,995	$5.37	0d	1	0.77mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22854 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$3,195	$4.27	45d	1	0.77mi
694 Tehama Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	1.5	1136	$3,300	$2.90	0d	1	0.82mi
21600 Westpark St Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	45d	1	0.93mi
22211 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,145	$2.38	6d	2	0.97mi
22230 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	6d	1	0.99mi
25800 Industrial Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,893	$3.53	0d	9	1.00mi
1172 Huron Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$5,000	$3.88	23d	1	1.05mi
1256 Stanhope Ln Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,650	$3.54	45d	1	1.11mi
466 Mackenzie Pl Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1173	$3,900	$3.32	26d	1	1.14mi
22078 Arbor Ave Hayward Acres, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	649	$2,140	$3.29	22d	1	1.18mi
21944 Arbor Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,895	$3.62	45d	1	1.22mi
24650 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$2,788	$3.39	0d	15	1.24mi
24660 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$2,600	$4.16	1d	3	1.27mi
280 Flint Ct Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	4d	1	1.29mi
894 Blaine Way Unit ADU Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,700	$3.18	45d	1	1.38mi
1098 Azalea Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1332	$3,500	$2.63	0d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $319,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $325,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $350,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $350,000 Active 1383-char remark
18. 2001-08-23
    soldstatus $88,500 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    **CO-LISTED WITH MARLA GUERNSEY 489-0893** NEARLY NEW MANUFACTURED HOME. 2BD AND DEN DUAL PANE WINDOWS & NEW 40 GAL WATER HEATER

19. 2001-07-18
    listed $92,500 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    **CO-LISTED WITH MARLA GUERNSEY 489-0893** NEARLY NEW MANUFACTURED HOME. 2BD AND DEN DUAL PANE WINDOWS & NEW 40 GAL WATER HEATER

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,976
• − Management: −$2,976
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$2,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$548
• After-tax cash flow: $3,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,843
• Household income: $114,356
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 8% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 14% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -974.17%
• Current HPI: 304.698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+244.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $319,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $325,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $350,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-08-23 Sold (MLS) $88,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-07-18 Listed $92,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $251 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.