5149 Henderson Rd #83 · Erie, PA 16509

$74,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $60k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this brand new Millcreek Mobile home! This home comes with a 7 year manufacturers warranty and is located in a well maintained community across from belle valley school! Come check out this affordable option in Millcreek!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 7 days

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: head south on rte. 8, turn right on Henderson, left into the park; Listing broker: Agresti Real Estate

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; R-1 zoning
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Home warranty included

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven, gas range, refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas oven, gas range, refrigerator; Crawl space basement; Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $74k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $515 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $74,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.29%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5149 Henderson Rd #146	0.00mi	2/1.5	924 (-4%)	2mo	$29,000	$31	90
5149 Henderson Lot 60 Rd	0.04mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	4mo	$29,000	$31	89
5149 Henderson Rd #117	0.03mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	14mo	$60,000	$63	87
5149 Henderson Rd #120	0.03mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	15mo	$60,000	$63	86
5149 Henderson Rd Lot 66	0.03mi	2/2.0	990 (+3%)	9mo	$54,900	$55	86
5149 Henderson Rd #84	0.03mi	2/1.5	960 (0%)	16mo	$45,000	$47	83
5149 Henderson Rd #139	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	924 (-4%)	7mo	$39,000	$42	81
5149 Henderson Rd Lot 113	0.03mi	2/1.5	990 (+3%)	16mo	$50,000	$51	78
1175 E Arlington Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	948 (-1%)	4mo	$150,000	$158	53
1710 E Grandview Blvd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	998 (+4%)	15mo	$105,000	$105	40
2108 Delphos Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,028 (+7%)	11mo	$199,900	$194	38
1914 Brooksboro Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,092 (+14%)	15mo	$161,000	$147	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $11,521
• Equity at exit: $11,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $40,459
• Equity at exit: $6,441

Cash invested: $20,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16509

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$391
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $652

Max offer price $74,500

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,625
• Closing costs: $2,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,500 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 232-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $74,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,173
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,075
• − Management: −$1,075
• − Depreciation: −$2,167
• Taxable income: $3,462
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$831
• After-tax cash flow: $3,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This brand new Millcreek Mobile home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,595
• Household income: $68,846
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.54%
• Current HPI: 240.361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $74,500 GEBOR