166 Howard Ct · Gray, GA 31032

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2003 0.57 ac lot Est $280k · 5% under $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Jones County offers an open floor plan that's perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private owner's suite provides a quiet retreat, while the spacious layout gives everyone room to spread out. Upstairs, you will find 2 spacious guest rooms and a full bath. Step outside to a huge, private back porch that's ideal for relaxing or hosting friends and family. The garage also features a built-in safe room for added peace of mind. Conveniently located just around the corner from shopping and schools.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Built-in safe room
• Conveniently located

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• HUGE PRIVATE BACK PORCH
• BUILT-IN SAFE ROOM
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot on a cul-de-sac; Lot size approximately 0.57 acres
• HOA & community: Association with a $50 monthly fee; No association-fee services included; Subdivision: Grayfield

Exterior

• Parking: Garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; House with two levels; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 2003; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Exterior and interior basement entry
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gray Elementary School (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #519 of 1,228 statewide, top 42%, 533 students, 66% FRL); Gray Station Middle School (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 653 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $265k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,840
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
236 Old Clinton Rd	0.33mi	3/3.0	1,645 (+4%)	1mo	$200,000	$122	74
139 Jackson Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+8%)	5mo	$195,000	$114	61
1073 Boulder Dr Lot 111	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-4%)	21mo	$269,724	$176	58
1073 Boulder Dr Lot 111	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,683 (+6%)	21mo	$296,724	$176	54
141 Stone Brooke Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,765 (+11%)	16mo	$315,000	$178	52
298 Bradley Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+4%)	14mo	$157,000	$95	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-38,143
• Equity at exit: $52,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-31,888
• Equity at exit: $45,798

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31032

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,770/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,196

Max offer price $244,609

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-40	+0% $-115	+5% $-190	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-196	+0% $-115	+5% $-34	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-48	base $-115	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Stone Brooke Dr Gray, GA	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.30mi
134 Stone Brooke Dr Gray, GA	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,900	$1.15	14d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    status Back On Market
17. 2026-05-07
    status Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Jones County offers an open floor plan that's perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private owner's suite provides a quiet retreat, while the spacious layout gives everyone room to spread out. Upstairs, you will find 2 spacious guest rooms and a full bath. Step outside to a huge, private back porch that's ideal for relaxing or hosting friends and family. The garage also features a built-in safe room for added peace of mind. Conveniently located just around the corner from shopping and schools.

18. 2026-04-30
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Jones County offers an open floor plan that's perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private owner's suite provides a quiet retreat, while the spacious layout gives everyone room to spread out. Upstairs, you will find 2 spacious guest rooms and a full bath. Step outside to a huge, private back porch that's ideal for relaxing or hosting friends and family. The garage also features a built-in safe room for added peace of mind. Conveniently located just around the corner from shopping and schools.

19. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Under Contract 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Jones County offers an open floor plan that's perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private owner's suite provides a quiet retreat, while the spacious layout gives everyone room to spread out. Upstairs, you will find 2 spacious guest rooms and a full bath. Step outside to a huge, private back porch that's ideal for relaxing or hosting friends and family. The garage also features a built-in safe room for added peace of mind. Conveniently located just around the corner from shopping and schools.

20. 2026-04-20
    listed $265,000 Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Jones County offers an open floor plan that's perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private owner's suite provides a quiet retreat, while the spacious layout gives everyone room to spread out. Upstairs, you will find 2 spacious guest rooms and a full bath. Step outside to a huge, private back porch that's ideal for relaxing or hosting friends and family. The garage also features a built-in safe room for added peace of mind. Conveniently located just around the corner from shopping and schools.

21. 2026-04-19
    listed $265,000 New
22. 2014-01-10
    soldstatus $119,100
23. 2014-01-09
    soldstatus $119,100 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This immaculate 3BR/2-1/2BA home in Jones County is ready for move-in. Open floor plan with beautiful hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances and master BR on the main floor with exquisite master bath. Large covered deck and patio overlooks private backyard professionally terraced. Large storage/workshop in basement with large storm/tornado room with poured concrete walls. Seller offering one-year home warranty.

24. 2003-05-23
    soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,770
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $63/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County
• NCES district ID: 1303150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,630
• Composite: 28.84/100
• National rank: #6649
• State rank: #72 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gray

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #3600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gray, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,755

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,682 people
• By 2030: 28,394 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 27,246 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,575 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 21,857 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 17,453 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 18% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.8% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Current HPI: 211.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1727.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — MGMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — MGMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $265,000 MGMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $265,000 GAMLS
• 2014-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $119,100 Public Records
• 2014-01-09 Sold (MLS) $119,100 GAMLS
• 2003-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,770 · +19.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.