5413 Tin Top Hwy · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$172,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 810 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2023 1,742 sqft lot $212/sqft · 6% above area Est $162k · 6% over $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Homeownership Near the Lake! Don’t miss this charming barndominium-style gem, where cozy living meets unbeatable value. Inside you’ll find granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an open-concept layout with lofty ceilings that make the space feel bright and inviting. Step outside to enjoy covered front and back patios, a fully fenced yard, a gravel driveway with carport, and plenty of room for outdoor living. Just 10 minutes from Granbury’s historic square, Lake Granbury, and City Beach Park, with easy access to Glen Rose and under an hour to Fort Worth- this home is perfect for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or a smart investment. Arrowhead Shores HOA perks include a community clubhouse, basketball court, playground, a large kid-friendly swimming pool, and 2 boat docks- all for only $24 per year. An affordable price point, a great layout, and a location that works—this home is worth a look!

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Fully fenced yard
• Open concept layout

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PATIOS
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,141
• List price: $172,000
• Delta: 6.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5407 Water View Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	796 (-2%)	11mo	$215,000	$270	70
5422 Arizona Trl	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+7%)	17mo	$85,000	$98	55
5429 Water View Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (+9%)	20mo	$275,000	$311	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,441
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,655
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,855/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $297	-5% $248	+0% $200	+5% $151	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $130	+0% $200	+5% $269	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $243	base $200	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	0d	1	1.09mi
4214 W Virginia Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,595	$1.50	45d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $172,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $172,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    status Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Affordable Homeownership Near the Lake! Don’t miss this charming barndominium-style gem, where cozy living meets unbeatable value. Inside you’ll find granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an open-concept layout with lofty ceilings that make the space feel bright and inviting. Step outside to enjoy covered front and back patios, a fully fenced yard, a gravel driveway with carport, and plenty of room for outdoor living. Just 10 minutes from Granbury’s historic square, Lake Granbury, and City Beach Park, with easy access to Glen Rose and under an hour to Fort Worth- this home is perfect for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or a smart investment. Arrowhead Shores HOA perks include a community clubhouse, basketball court, playground, a large kid-friendly swimming pool, and 2 boat docks- all for only $24 per year. An affordable price point, a great layout, and a location that works—this home is worth a look!

16. 2026-04-20
    status Pending 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Affordable Homeownership Near the Lake! Don’t miss this charming barndominium-style gem, where cozy living meets unbeatable value. Inside you’ll find granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an open-concept layout with lofty ceilings that make the space feel bright and inviting. Step outside to enjoy covered front and back patios, a fully fenced yard, a gravel driveway with carport, and plenty of room for outdoor living. Just 10 minutes from Granbury’s historic square, Lake Granbury, and City Beach Park, with easy access to Glen Rose and under an hour to Fort Worth- this home is perfect for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or a smart investment. Arrowhead Shores HOA perks include a community clubhouse, basketball court, playground, a large kid-friendly swimming pool, and 2 boat docks- all for only $24 per year. An affordable price point, a great layout, and a location that works—this home is worth a look!

17. 2026-01-13
    listed $172,000 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    Affordable Homeownership Near the Lake! Don’t miss this charming barndominium-style gem, where cozy living meets unbeatable value. Inside you’ll find granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an open-concept layout with lofty ceilings that make the space feel bright and inviting. Step outside to enjoy covered front and back patios, a fully fenced yard, a gravel driveway with carport, and plenty of room for outdoor living. Just 10 minutes from Granbury’s historic square, Lake Granbury, and City Beach Park, with easy access to Glen Rose and under an hour to Fort Worth- this home is perfect for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or a smart investment. Arrowhead Shores HOA perks include a community clubhouse, basketball court, playground, a large kid-friendly swimming pool, and 2 boat docks- all for only $24 per year. An affordable price point, a great layout, and a location that works—this home is worth a look!

18. 2025-12-01
    historical
19. 2025-08-19
    price $179,900
20. 2025-07-02
    listed $189,000 Active
21. 2023-12-01
    soldstatus
22. 2023-11-29
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2023-11-13
    status Pending
24. 2023-11-03
    historical Active Option Contract
25. 2023-10-26
    status Active
26. 2023-10-20
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2023-09-28
    listed $150,000 Active
28. 2023-07-10
    soldstatus
29. 2022-11-21
    soldstatus
30. 2022-08-31
    soldstatus
31. 1982-10-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,148 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,292/yr (+$108/mo · 69.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,855
• − Insurance: −$1,658
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$86
• After-tax cash flow: $2,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $172,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-11-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-11-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-10-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-10-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-09-28 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+37.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,855 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.