5921 Luke Ct · Nolensville, TN 37014

$1,015,076

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,124 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2026 0.35 ac lot Est $1015k · at est. $55/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.02M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $735k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $650k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.2% in Nolensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#2 in TN, #2,317 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #60 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 623 students, 0% FRL); Fred J Page High School (math 17% / reading 69%, grade F, #20 of 332 statewide, top 6%, 1,284 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $73k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$117k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $650,000 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,015,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5451 Ayana Dr	0.18mi	4/4.0	3,202 (+2%)	4mo	$939,000	$293	80
5502 Ayana Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	3,140 (+0%)	18mo	$1,061,490	$338	73
5093 High Park Hill Dr	0.11mi	4/4.0	3,012 (-4%)	17mo	$920,000	$305	71
5490 Ayana Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,795 (-10%)	17mo	$934,035	$334	66
5036 High Park Hill Dr	0.26mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,506 (+12%)	2mo	$1,055,000	$301	59
5444 Ayana Dr	0.20mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,357 (+8%)	9mo	$950,000	$283	58
6001 Elliott Ct	0.08mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,565 (+14%)	0mo	$1,236,900	$347	57
5458 Ayana Dr	0.17mi	4/4.0	3,480 (+11%)	16mo	$1,129,900	$325	56
5475 Ayana Dr	0.12mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,584 (+15%)	9mo	$835,000	$233	56
1016 Bunker Hill Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,917 (-7%)	11mo	$950,000	$326	46
1014 Valley Forge Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	3,373 (+8%)	15mo	$1,300,000	$385	46
5208 Kaline Dr	0.34mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,419 (+9%)	15mo	$1,099,900	$322	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $202,997
• Equity at exit: $673,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $686,227
• Equity at exit: $1,252,458

Cash invested: $284,221 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37014

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,323
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,269 /mo · $15,226/yr
• Insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $-1,935

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,949

Max offer price $735,084

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $253,769
• Closing costs: $30,452
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1301 Ashby Valley Ln Arrington, TN	4.0	4.5	4282	$6,500	$1.52	23d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   listed $1,015,076
2. 2026-05-17
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$56,860
• − Property taxes: −$15,226
• − Insurance: −$5,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,240
• − Management: −$6,240
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$29,529
• Taxable loss: −$41,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,039
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson County
• NCES district ID: 4704530
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $103,392
• Composite: 54.94/100
• National rank: #1307
• State rank: #1 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nolensville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #2317

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,409
• Population (ZIP): 3,633

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 275,925 people
• By 2030: 308,630 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 374,403 · +35.7%
• By 2050: 438,644 · +59.0%
• By 2075: 592,763 · +114.8%
• By 2100: 691,828 · +150.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Slovak 1% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.0% · R 65.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+26.1 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.54%
• Current HPI: 498.4505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $1,015,076 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid