742-5 Rr 2 · Ava, MO 65608

$89,900

2 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,202 sqft · Other public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2022 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 10 acre property located in Douglas County is set up perfectly for that weekend get away or your personal off grid oasis. The cabin is 480 square feet with 2 bedrooms 1 bath , cabin has a 2025 installed wood stove that heats the entire cabin the water is stored in an insulated and buried 550 gallon tank and powered by a solar panel, giving you constant on demand water. This 10 acre parcel has some nice mature timber and a year round spring that attracts wildlife in those dry seasons providing excellent hunting on this property. The views are absolutely stunning and you are within walking distance to Bryant Creek that provides fishing and recreation opportunities. The property has a ju

Key facts

• 10 acre property
• Wood stove
• Year round spring

Tags

• 10 ACRE PROPERTY
• WOOD STOVE
• INSULATED WATER TANK
• SOLAR PANEL
• YEAR ROUND SPRING
• PREDATOR PROOF CHICKEN HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/0.5-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ava Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 544 students, 64% FRL); Ava Middle (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 390 students, 62% FRL); Ava High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 451 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $90k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.81%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $64,277
• Equity at exit: $74,835

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.81×
• Total profit: $171,415
• Equity at exit: $155,255

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65608

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $696

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $357	+0% $332	+5% $306	+10% $281
Rent	-10% $244	-5% $288	+0% $332	+5% $376	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $355	base $332	+0.5pp $308	+1.0pp $285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205D Knaack CT Unit 1 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.44mi
1322 Springfield Rd Unit 7 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,250	$1.11	44d	1	1.18mi
1315 Airport Rd Unit 9 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,250	$1.00	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   status Active
3. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-12
   listed $89,900 Active
5. 2022-10-20
   soldstatus
6. 2014-09-18
   listed $169,000
7. 2004-09-16
   soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$380/yr (+$32/mo · 77.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$638
• After-tax cash flow: $3,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ava R-I
• NCES district ID: 2904050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,148
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5766
• State rank: #177 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ava

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1299

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ava, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,478

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,395 people
• By 2030: 11,690 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 10,185 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 8,805 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 6,716 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 5,493 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.05%
• Current HPI: 249.1557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+52.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-12 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-04-07 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-02-12 Listed $89,900 SOMO
• 2022-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-18 Listed $169,000 SOMO
• 2004-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.