31551 Azure Beach Dr · San Antonio, FL 33576

$270,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,674 sqft · Townhouse · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,081 sqft lot Est $316k · 15% under $347/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Mirada, Located in San Antonio, FL, this neighborhood is home to the nation’s largest man-made lagoon—an impressive fifteen acres of crystal-clear blue water. Residents enjoy a resort-style experience right outside their door, with access to kayaks, paddle boards, splash zones, sandy beaches, and even a floating obstacle course. Whether you’re looking for relaxation or adventure, this one-of-a-kind amenity that delivers it all. Step into modern comfort with this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome, complete with a 1-car garage and a layout crafted for both style and convenience. The first-floor features 9'4" ceilings that create an open, airy

Key facts

• Splash zones
• Sandy beaches
• Paddle boards

Tags

• MAN-MADE LAGOON
• ACCESS TO KAYAKS
• PADDLE BOARDS
• SPLASH ZONES
• SANDY BEACHES
• FLOATING OBSTACLE COURSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Builder license: CBC1257565
• Financial info: Total annual HOA/fees: $4,164; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA (Ryan Homes) with monthly fee of $347 (includes grounds maintenance); Association amenities: gated; Community features: park, playground, street lights; Pets allowed with number limit

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (10x21) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity available; Fiber optics; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Attached property; Two levels; Pre-construction (projected completion 2026-10-31); South-facing
• Construction: Block, stucco, frame and other construction materials; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; builder: RYAN HOMES (model: MAYSHORE)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sliding doors; Conservation area lot; Sidewalks; Paved roads; Fl. friendly/native landscaping; Irrigation equipment; Gunite in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry on upper level; Inside utility room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#454 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 366 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,992 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,386
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31536 Azure Beach Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	1mo	$427,693	$239	86
31530 Azure Beach Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	1mo	$426,602	$239	86
11122 Tidepool Ct	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	5mo	$419,990	$235	80
11132 Tidepool Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	6mo	$429,000	$240	80
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,602 (-4%)	3mo	$279,990	$175	78
11126 Tidepool Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,788 (+7%)	9mo	$430,385	$241	77
32089 Eastern Redbud Br	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,684 (+1%)	6mo	$318,450	$189	62
32103 Eastern Redbud Br	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,684 (+1%)	6mo	$288,700	$171	62
32111 Eastern Redbud Br	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,684 (+1%)	6mo	$306,100	$182	62
32122 Eastern Redbud Br	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,694 (+1%)	6mo	$264,900	$156	60
32128 Eastern Redbud Br	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,694 (+1%)	6mo	$289,900	$171	60
10663 Ironwood Tree Way	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,639 (-2%)	4mo	$276,900	$169	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-54,238
• Equity at exit: $48,517

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-80,449
• Equity at exit: $37,782

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33576

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$347
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,801

Max offer price $242,992

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-93	+0% $-187	+5% $-280	+10% $-373
Rent	-10% $-389	-5% $-288	+0% $-187	+5% $-85	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-118	base $-187	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	23d	1	0.09mi
11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	22d	1	0.09mi
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,300	$1.44	26d	1	0.27mi
10797 Penny Gale Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1961	$2,300	$1.17	25d	1	0.45mi
11608 Ascend Mirada Blvd San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,530	$2.15	1d	21	0.48mi
32094 Hawthorne Cottage Pl San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,795	$1.44	26d	1	0.56mi
11322 Cay Spruce Way Unit n/a Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,420	$1.21	26d	1	0.59mi
11357 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1615	$2,100	$1.30	19d	1	0.61mi
11672 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,495	$1.33	16d	1	0.62mi
11210 Linden Depot Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	6d	1	0.63mi
31493 Cannon Rush Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1968	$2,795	$1.42	4d	1	0.64mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	26d	1	0.65mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	3d	1	0.65mi
32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,250	$1.37	26d	1	0.68mi
11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,250	$1.55	26d	1	0.70mi
31478 Ocean Ave San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1119	$2,499	$2.23	1d	46	0.71mi
10715 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,050	$1.22	16d	1	0.73mi
10462 Weldon Cork Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1747	$2,200	$1.26	16d	1	0.74mi
10708 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	19d	1	0.75mi
32112 Pond Apple Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	26d	1	0.76mi
32118 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,400	$1.39	26d	1	0.77mi
10647 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,400	$1.40	26d	1	0.78mi
10583 Tupper Cay Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,950	$1.67	6d	1	0.84mi
10443 Lavender Aster Trl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	0.89mi
32077 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,100	$1.36	26d	1	0.92mi
32127 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	0.97mi
32146 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,050	$1.14	22d	1	1.00mi
32201 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,050	$1.25	26d	1	1.02mi
10375 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	19d	1	1.05mi
10356 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,890	$1.13	0d	1	1.06mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	22d	1	1.07mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	5d	1	1.07mi
10321 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	23d	1	1.09mi
10225 Fieldstone Myrtle Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	3.0	1985	$2,800	$1.41	12d	1	1.10mi
10334 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	26d	1	1.10mi
10250 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,979	$1.18	26d	1	1.14mi
32009 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,900	$1.26	19d	1	1.14mi
31856 Cardinal Yard Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1783	$2,500	$1.40	26d	1	1.15mi
32650 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,600	$1.41	14d	1	1.15mi
32010 Spiceberry St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	14d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $347 · $4,164/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricestatusdays on market $270,000 Pending 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,985 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,985 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $268,985 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $268,985 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $268,985 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,985 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $268,985 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $268,985 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $268,985 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $268,985 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $268,985 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,985 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,985 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $268,985 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,462
• − Management: −$2,462
• − HOA: −$4,164
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,605
• After-tax cash flow: $-634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This pre-construction townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great investment opportunity with high potential for resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves aesthetics and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #8221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 6,273
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,273
• Household income: $76,388
• Rent vs Own: 4.5% rent · 95.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 31.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Current HPI: 281.7138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $268,985 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid