Cascade 1533 Plan · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$295,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily · 332 Days on market

↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover Cascade in Liberty Hill, where small-town charm meets surprising luxury. With new homes currently starting in the mid-$200s, Cascade features amenities rarely found at this price point, including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, a community park, and more. Choose from more than 14 thoughtfully designed floor plans with up to 5 bedrooms, giving you the flexibility to find the perfect home for your lifestyle. Reserve early, and you'll even have the opportunity to customize the home plan of your choosing to truly make it your own. Like every Brohn community, Cascade delivers More Home for Your Money with high-end finishes, thoughtful details, and smarter construction-all included.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 332 days

🏗️ New construction. The $295,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-605/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $257,104 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,200
• List price: $295,990
• Delta: -1.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Adze Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-1%)	4mo	$290,220	$192	93
113 Adze Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,533 (0%)	4mo	$295,360	$193	92
105 Adze Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-6%)	2mo	$286,180	$198	84
405 Rear Boot Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-6%)	3mo	$285,720	$197	82
141 Adze Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,668 (+9%)	2mo	$301,200	$181	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,514
• Equity at exit: $44,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-84,918
• Equity at exit: $26,042

Cash invested: $84,336 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,580
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,518/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,635

Max offer price $293,906

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,300
• Closing costs: $9,036
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,350	$1.35	16d	1	1.26mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,350	$1.35	4d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,990 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,990 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,990 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,990 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,990 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,990 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,990 Active 322 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,990 Active 321 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $295,990 Active 318 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,990 Active 317 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,990 Active 316 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,990 Active 315 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,990 Active 314 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $295,990 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Discover Cascade in Liberty Hill, where small-town charm meets surprising luxury. With new homes currently starting in the mid-$200s, Cascade features amenities rarely found at this price point, including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, a community park, and more. Choose from more than 14 thoughtfully designed floor plans with up to 5 bedrooms, giving you the flexibility to find the perfect home for your lifestyle. Reserve early, and you'll even have the opportunity to customize the home plan of your choosing to truly make it your own. Like every Brohn community, Cascade delivers More Home for Your Money with high-end finishes, thoughtful details, and smarter construction-all included.

15. 2026-04-22
    price $293,990 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Discover Cascade in Liberty Hill, where small-town charm meets surprising luxury. With new homes currently starting in the mid-$200s, Cascade features amenities rarely found at this price point, including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, a community park, and more. Choose from more than 14 thoughtfully designed floor plans with up to 5 bedrooms, giving you the flexibility to find the perfect home for your lifestyle. Reserve early, and you'll even have the opportunity to customize the home plan of your choosing to truly make it your own. Like every Brohn community, Cascade delivers More Home for Your Money with high-end finishes, thoughtful details, and smarter construction-all included.

16. 2026-04-18
    price $290,990 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Discover Cascade in Liberty Hill, where small-town charm meets surprising luxury. With new homes currently starting in the mid-$200s, Cascade features amenities rarely found at this price point, including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, a community park, and more. Choose from more than 14 thoughtfully designed floor plans with up to 5 bedrooms, giving you the flexibility to find the perfect home for your lifestyle. Reserve early, and you'll even have the opportunity to customize the home plan of your choosing to truly make it your own. Like every Brohn community, Cascade delivers More Home for Your Money with high-end finishes, thoughtful details, and smarter construction-all included.

17. 2026-04-17
    price $293,990 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Discover Cascade in Liberty Hill, where small-town charm meets surprising luxury. With new homes currently starting in the mid-$200s, Cascade features amenities rarely found at this price point, including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, a community park, and more. Choose from more than 14 thoughtfully designed floor plans with up to 5 bedrooms, giving you the flexibility to find the perfect home for your lifestyle. Reserve early, and you'll even have the opportunity to customize the home plan of your choosing to truly make it your own. Like every Brohn community, Cascade delivers More Home for Your Money with high-end finishes, thoughtful details, and smarter construction-all included.

18. 2025-09-19
    price $290,990 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Discover Cascade in Liberty Hill, where small-town charm meets surprising luxury. With new homes currently starting in the mid-$200s, Cascade features amenities rarely found at this price point, including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, a community park, and more. Choose from more than 14 thoughtfully designed floor plans with up to 5 bedrooms, giving you the flexibility to find the perfect home for your lifestyle. Reserve early, and you'll even have the opportunity to customize the home plan of your choosing to truly make it your own. Like every Brohn community, Cascade delivers More Home for Your Money with high-end finishes, thoughtful details, and smarter construction-all included.

19. 2025-07-21
    listed $326,990 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Discover Cascade in Liberty Hill, where small-town charm meets surprising luxury. With new homes currently starting in the mid-$200s, Cascade features amenities rarely found at this price point, including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, a community park, and more. Choose from more than 14 thoughtfully designed floor plans with up to 5 bedrooms, giving you the flexibility to find the perfect home for your lifestyle. Reserve early, and you'll even have the opportunity to customize the home plan of your choosing to truly make it your own. Like every Brohn community, Cascade delivers More Home for Your Money with high-end finishes, thoughtful details, and smarter construction-all included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,872
• − Property taxes: −$4,518
• − Insurance: −$1,506
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,468
• − Management: −$2,468
• − Depreciation: −$8,762
• Taxable loss: −$5,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,378
• After-tax cash flow: $773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-21 Listed $326,990 Zillow