Is Fentress Plan in Cove, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.4% cap rate and $-236/mo modeled cash flow at a $301,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Fentress Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 5.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,510/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 39.68

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +9.3/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +6.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Rent growth +3.4/5.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
1% rule +2.8/10.0
DSCR +2.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$301,990

Fentress Plan · Cove, TX 77523

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily · 512 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with island, café and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provides plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

Key facts

Two-story foyer
Kitchen with island
Loft space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (5.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $251k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 512 days — a 12% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $251,021 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 512 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.78% ✗
Cap rate: 5.41%
Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
DSCR: 0.86
GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $321,080
List price: $301,990
Delta: -5.95%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6710 Alejandro Pl	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,300 (+4%)	1mo	$354,040	$154	84
415 Ruby Ford Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+6%)	1mo	$299,440	$127	79
6906 Bens Lndg	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,218 (0%)	1mo	$304,640	$137	79
6719 Camila St	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,466 (+11%)	0mo	$322,170	$131	75
6714 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-9%)	0mo	$325,990	$161	70
14407 Sweet Water Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,251 (+2%)	0mo	$342,900	$152	63
2010 Caroline Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,374 (+7%)	1mo	$474,900	$200	61
6926 Bens Lndg	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-8%)	1mo	$320,180	$158	60
5926 Golden Cove Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,326 (+5%)	0mo	$269,000	$116	56
102 Pacific Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-8%)	0mo	$314,530	$155	55
6918 Bens Lndg	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,536 (+14%)	0mo	$319,440	$126	54
1711 Caroline Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,432 (+10%)	1mo	$434,900	$179	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -21.1%
Equity multiple: 0.27×
Total profit: $-65,947
Equity at exit: $47,874

10-year hold

IRR: -13.6%
Equity multiple: 0.20×
Total profit: $-72,205
Equity at exit: $27,761

Cash invested: $89,902 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 67 active · 36 under contract
Months of supply: 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $345,990 ($163/sqft)
Median days on market: 74 d
This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -11.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

Home prices YoY: -31.5%
Rents YoY: 3.4%
Active inventory: 921
Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,510 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,684
Tax est. 1.5%: −$401 /mo · $4,816/yr
Insurance: −$134
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,809

Max offer price $286,953

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-125	+0% $-236	+5% $-347	+10% $-458
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-335	+0% $-236	+5% $-137	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-154	base $-236	+0.5pp $-319	+1.0pp $-404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $80,270
Closing costs: $9,632
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	93d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	50d	1	0.66mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	27d	1	0.85mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	29d	1	0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	7d	1	0.89mi
15218 Arnold Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	0d	1	0.96mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	7d	1	1.06mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,236	$0.96	23d	1	1.12mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,136	$1.04	23d	1	1.13mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,595	$1.24	12d	1	1.19mi
14114 Little River Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2771	$2,645	$0.95	36d	1	1.22mi
50A Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	20d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $301,990 Active 512 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $301,990 Active 510 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $301,990 Active 509 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $301,990 Active 508 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $301,990 Active 507 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $301,990 Active 504 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $301,990 Active 502 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $301,990 Active 501 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $301,990 Active 499 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $301,990 Active 497 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $301,990 Active 496 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $301,990 Active 495 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $301,990 Active 494 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $301,990 Active 493 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $301,990 Active 491 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $301,990 Active 490 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $301,990 Active 489 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $301,990 Active 488 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $301,990 Active 487 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $301,990 Active 486 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $301,990 Active 485 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $301,990 Active 484 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $301,990 Active 483 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $301,990 Active 482 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $301,990 Active 480 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $301,990 Active 479 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $301,990 Active 478 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $301,990 Active 477 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $301,990 Active 476 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $301,990 Active 475 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $301,990 Active 474 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $301,990 Active 473 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $301,990 Active 472 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $301,990 Active 471 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $301,990 Active 470 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $301,990 Active 469 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $301,990 Active 467 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $301,990 Active 465 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $301,990 Active 464 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $301,990 Active 461 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $301,990 Active 460 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $301,990 Active 459 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $301,990 Active 458 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $301,990 Active 456 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $301,990 Active 452 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $301,990 Active 451 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $301,990 Active 450 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $301,990 Active 447 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $301,990 Active 446 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $301,990 Active 445 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,123
− Mortgage interest: −$17,985
− Property taxes: −$4,816
− Insurance: −$1,605
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
− Management: −$2,410
− Depreciation: −$9,341
Taxable loss: −$8,445

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,027
After-tax cash flow: $-803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, modern home with excellent curb appeal and a spacious layout is move-in ready and ready to be enhanced with minor updates for maximum resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Barbers Hill ISD
NCES district ID: 4809450
Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $87,257
Composite: 61.73/100
National rank: #737
State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

Score: 64/100
State rank: #766
US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 30,186
Household income: $124,188
Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 46,946 people
By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
Current HPI: 222.6999
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-04-08 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
2026-01-11 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
2025-06-13 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
2025-03-15 Listed $307,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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