915 San Pablo Way · Novato, CA 94949

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Built 1972 Average condition $122/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large, airy home in senior park with good sized bedrooms and office area. Kitchen has had lower cabinets removed....double oven and fridge are in kitchen but no kitchen sink or stove or lower cabinets....a blank canvas to finish kitchen just the way you want! Partial enclosed porch adds to storage space....Fema Flood Zone but no flood ins required due to elevation of unit. Space rent goes up annually with cost of living subject to Novato Rent Control. No Property Taxes!!!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1972
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.22%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -50.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
715 Seville Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$385,000	$267	91
708 Seville Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-3%)	5mo	$351,000	$252	88
502 Vera Cruz Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$332,000	$231	83
410 San Paulo Way	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$242,775	$169	81
313 San Sebastian Way	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$170,000	$118	78
713 Seville Way	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$215,000	$149	77
805 Las Palmas	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	6mo	$420,000	$324	77
524 Vera Cruz Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	12mo	$405,000	$296	76
3 Oceano Pl	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	11mo	$340,000	$253	72
209 Barcelona Way	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	13mo	$400,000	$260	70
311 San Sebastian Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	15mo	$358,600	$267	67
113 Ensenada Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	23mo	$260,000	$193	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $66,878
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $162,900
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $1,601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,722	-5% $1,662	+0% $1,601	+5% $1,541	+10% $1,480
Rent	-10% $1,320	-5% $1,461	+0% $1,601	+5% $1,742	+10% $1,883
Rate	-1.0pp $1,690	-0.5pp $1,646	base $1,601	+0.5pp $1,556	+1.0pp $1,510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	0d	1	0.37mi
235 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,225	$2.69	0d	1	0.46mi
450 Entrada Dr Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,900	$2.83	11d	1	0.60mi
98 Gann Way Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1428	$3,950	$2.77	44d	1	0.94mi
75 Gann Way Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1822	$5,000	$2.74	16d	1	0.96mi
108 Ignacio Valley Cir Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1801	$4,600	$2.55	19d	1	1.00mi
1033 Susan Way Novato, CA	3.0	3.0	1813	$4,250	$2.34	25d	1	1.32mi
301 Capetown Ct Novato, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$3,400	$2.57	44d	1	1.37mi
9 Quince Ct Novato, CA	3.0	2.0	1566	$4,695	$3.00	44d	1	1.39mi
130 Pelican Ln Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1674	$3,925	$2.34	44d	1	1.42mi
102 Redhawk Rd Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1731	$3,950	$2.28	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   status $175,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Contingent (Show) 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Contingent (Show) 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Contingent (Show) 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Contingent (Show) 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Contingent (Show) 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $175,000 Contingent (Show) 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $175,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Large, airy home in senior park with good sized bedrooms and office area. Kitchen has had lower cabinets removed....double oven and fridge are in kitchen but no kitchen sink or stove or lower cabinets....a blank canvas to finish kitchen just the way you want! Partial enclosed porch adds to storage space....Fema Flood Zone but no flood ins required due to elevation of unit. Space rent goes up annually with cost of living subject to Novato Rent Control. No Property Taxes!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,416
• − Management: −$3,416
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $17,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,193
• After-tax cash flow: $15,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations, primarily in the kitchen and flooring, to improve its condition and appeal for resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen sink and stove — No sink or stove in kitchen.
• Major Lower cabinets — Removed, need replacement or reinstallation.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Install kitchen sink and stove — Enhances functionality and appeal for both resale and rental.
• Both Replace lower cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetic appeal for both resale and rental.
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and aesthetically pleasing, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen sink and stove · No sink or stove in kitchen.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Lower cabinets · Removed, need replacement or reinstallation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Install kitchen sink and stove — Enhances functionality and appeal for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Replace lower cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetic appeal for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and aesthetically pleasing, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $175,000 BAREIS