12815 Segrest Dr · Houston, TX 77047

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,469 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1971 5,671 sqft lot $135/sqft · 9% above area Est $183k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice three bedroom starter home for the right family. features large family room area, room that could be used as a formal living or study in front of the house. Nice size back yard.

Key facts

• 5,671 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first-floor living)
• Construction: Built in 1971; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Pantry (in kitchen area)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Pantry; Tub/shower; Combined living and dining area; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Law El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 514 students, 91% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $199k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,256 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,966
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 8.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12821 Donegal Way	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+3%)	1mo	$239,000	$158	76
12707 Southbridge Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-5%)	1mo	$209,000	$149	74
12702 Claygate Dr	0.17mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,360 (-7%)	1mo	$98,000	$72	72
12002 Comfort Glen Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-5%)	3mo	$189,900	$136	66
12027 Duane St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+2%)	4mo	$248,000	$165	58
4635 Kilkenny Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-5%)	7mo	$222,500	$159	57
12511 Claygate Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,298 (-12%)	10mo	$95,000	$73	57
4503 Bungalow Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-1%)	13mo	$230,000	$159	52
11911 Duane St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+7%)	8mo	$250,000	$160	50
4330 Fairgreen Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+8%)	5mo	$130,000	$82	50
12803 Heddington Grove Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+10%)	9mo	$309,800	$191	38
3025 Stamford Hill Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,659 (+13%)	13mo	$329,990	$199	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,330
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,701
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,372/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $204	+0% $147	+5% $91	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $74	+0% $147	+5% $221	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $198	base $147	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	45d	1	0.19mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	1d	1	0.55mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	7d	1	0.57mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	26	0.64mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	16d	1	0.65mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	17d	1	0.71mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	45d	1	0.73mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	45d	1	0.82mi
13561 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	45d	1	0.93mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	45d	35	0.95mi
3110 Kainer Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,900	$1.29	9d	1	1.16mi
4071 Schurmier Rd Unit SLC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,575	$1.59	5d	1	1.21mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	20d	1	1.26mi
13351 Cityscape Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,820	$1.87	0d	26	1.32mi
2620 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$1,650	$2.09	1d	15	1.34mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Unit 13534 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,755	$1.52	0d	1	1.43mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,720	$1.49	7d	1	1.43mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	961	$1,710	$1.78	14d	26	1.45mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-04-28
    listed $229,000 Active 318-char remark
14. 2026-04-09
    listed $1,550
15. 2025-06-06
    soldstatus
16. 2025-06-05
    soldstatus
17. 2025-06-04
    soldstatus Sold 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Nice three bedroom starter home for the right family. features large family room area, room that could be used as a formal living or study in front of the house. Nice size back yard.

18. 2025-05-18
    status Pending 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Nice three bedroom starter home for the right family. features large family room area, room that could be used as a formal living or study in front of the house. Nice size back yard.

19. 2025-05-18
    status Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Nice three bedroom starter home for the right family. features large family room area, room that could be used as a formal living or study in front of the house. Nice size back yard.

20. 2025-05-18
    status Pending 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Nice three bedroom starter home for the right family. features large family room area, room that could be used as a formal living or study in front of the house. Nice size back yard.

21. 2025-05-18
    listed $102,000 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Nice three bedroom starter home for the right family. features large family room area, room that could be used as a formal living or study in front of the house. Nice size back yard.

22. 2025-05-18
    price $102,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Nice three bedroom starter home for the right family. features large family room area, room that could be used as a formal living or study in front of the house. Nice size back yard.

23. 2025-04-16
    soldstatus $90,000
24. 2025-03-31
    historical
25. 2025-03-06
    status Active
26. 2025-02-20
    status Pending
27. 2025-01-06
    listed $150,000 Active
28. 2006-11-09
    soldstatus
29. 2004-03-16
    soldstatus
30. 1997-09-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,372 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,270/yr (+$106/mo · 53.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,372
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$367
• After-tax cash flow: $2,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed for Rent $1,550 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $102,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listed $102,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2006-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,372 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.