1051 W Mclean Ave · Burton, MI 48507

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1950 3,920 sqft lot Est $122k · 22% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Carman-Ainsworth Community Schools (suburban): math 12% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #468 of 540 in MI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.49%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1096 W Buder Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	906 (-9%)	10mo	$80,000	$88	70
1081 W Parkwood Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	900 (-10%)	9mo	$48,500	$54	68
1122 W Scottwood Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	888 (-11%)	15mo	$77,500	$87	60
4436 Carmanwood Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	994 (-1%)	10mo	$165,000	$166	60
1119 W Bergin Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+14%)	2mo	$47,500	$42	58
3415 Hull Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,028 (+3%)	7mo	$44,500	$43	57
4460 Bristolwood Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+9%)	3mo	$195,000	$179	52
4076 Carmanwood Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	925 (-8%)	12mo	$125,000	$135	50
3444 Van Campen Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+14%)	13mo	$139,000	$122	38
4243 Moulton Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	8mo	$155,000	$179	35
5022 Fenton Rd #1	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,130 (+13%)	10mo	$155,000	$137	34
1165 Carman St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	852 (-15%)	11mo	$75,001	$88	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,489
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $13,831
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48507

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $817

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $348	+0% $321	+5% $294	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $273	+0% $321	+5% $369	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $345	base $321	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4070 Greenbriar Blvd Burton, MI	3.0–4.0	2.0	1512	$1,399	$0.93	14d	1	0.62mi
4400 Kings Ln Burton, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	666	$960	$1.44	14d	19	0.79mi
5800 Maplebrook Ln Flint, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	837	$1,675	$2.00	14d	70	0.97mi
813 Alvord Ave Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	724	$850	$1.17	14d	1	1.19mi
912 Waldman Ave Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	1223	$675	$0.55	14d	1	1.44mi
4441 Jena Ln Flint, MI	3.0–4.0	2.0	1456	$1,249	$0.86	14d	1	1.44mi
1426 Pettibone Ave Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2025-06-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-25
   historical
3. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
4. 2022-06-08
   soldstatus $92,000
5. 2022-04-19
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

6. 2022-04-19
   status Pending 96-char remark

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

7. 2022-04-14
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

8. 2022-04-14
   status Active 96-char remark

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

9. 2022-04-09
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (96 chars)

   Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

10. 2022-04-09
    status Pending 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

11. 2022-04-04
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

12. 2022-04-04
    status Active 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

13. 2022-04-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

14. 2022-04-01
    historical 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

15. 2022-03-25
    status Active
16. 2022-03-24
    status Active 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

17. 2022-03-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

18. 2022-03-21
    status Pending 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

19. 2022-01-27
    status Active
20. 2022-01-13
    historical
21. 2021-11-15
    listed $95,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

22. 2021-11-15
    listed $95,000 Active 96-char remark

    Show marketing remark (96 chars)

    Ready to move in. Many updates on this home. Great started or retirement home with great garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,174
• − Management: −$1,174
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,481
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$595
• After-tax cash flow: $3,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carman-Ainsworth Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2607890
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,394
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9149
• State rank: #468 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #17380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 26,014
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 28,723
• Household income: $46,554
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1534.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 28% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.90%
• Current HPI: 132.3632
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.04%
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-03-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-14 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-14 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-04 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-04 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-25 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-03-24 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-03-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-27 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-01-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-11-15 Listed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-15 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,288 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.