966 Bonnie Brae Ave · Youngstown, OH 44511

$170,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,509 sqft · Land · 106 Days on market

Built 2025 5,201 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This newly constructed 1,509 square foot, three-bedroom, two and one-half bathroom home is located just a block away from beautiful Mill Creek Park. The home features a sprawling front porch, spacious open concept living, dining, and kitchen area, first-floor laundry, second-floor master suite, and a detached two-car garage. The full basement is both waterproofed and insulated. Refrigerator, range, microwave range hood, dishwasher, washer, and dryer are included with purchase. Yard to be graded and seeded by builder as soon as weather allows. This home has a 15-year 100% property tax abatement on all improvements and is eligible for the City of Youngstown's $10,000 down payment assistance p

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Front porch
• First-floor laundry

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• SECOND-FLOOR MASTER SUITE
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• WATERPROOFED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Garage with 2 parking spaces; Concrete driveway; Garage faces front; Garage door opener; Exterior lighting at parking area; Electricity to garage
• Security: Security system; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Energy-efficient HVAC, insulation, and water heater
• Home design: 2-story home; New construction; Faces south; Entry foyer
• Construction: Built using frame construction with vinyl siding; Batts, blown-in, and spray foam insulation; Asphalt shingle pitched roof; Block foundation; Year built recorded by builder
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Back yard; Front yard; City lot; Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 130

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms located on the second floor
• Flooring: Laminate counters noted (flooring type not specified)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Open floorplan; Recessed lighting; Wired for data; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows; Window screens
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($870/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.83%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,905
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,901
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44511

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $131	+0% $73	+5% $14	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $10	+0% $73	+5% $135	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $116	base $73	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   listed $170,000 Active
3. 2025-12-12
   soldstatus $849,900
4. 2006-09-15
   soldstatus $60,000
5. 1998-11-25
   soldstatus $10,000
6. 1996-12-09
   historical
7. 1996-11-09
   listed $29,900
8. 1990-07-24
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $1,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning County · 84,956 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 18,909
• Household income: $56,880
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 336.0

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.81%
• Current HPI: 283.9088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+1600.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-01-19 Listed $170,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $849,900 Public Records
• 2006-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1996-12-09 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1996-11-09 Listed $29,900 MLSNOW
• 1990-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-30.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $14 · +389.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.