1050 Watson Dr · Cottonwood, AZ 86326

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 350 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $180k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 350 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $235,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property (spec/inventory)
• Construction: Built/listed as a spec home

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,440 (listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,322/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 894% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 350 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 350 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1065 Crenshaw Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$180,000	$125	94
992 Trevino Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-1%)	3mo	$195,000	$136	84
972 Trevino Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-4%)	2mo	$179,900	$130	80
2050 W St Route 89a -- #273	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$150,000	$104	76
2050 W SR 89a -- #104	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+1%)	1mo	$118,000	$81	74
880 W On The Greens Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	2mo	$249,900	$154	74
1024 Rankin Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+12%)	2mo	$199,900	$125	69
1216 Hogan Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+11%)	1mo	$248,000	$155	67
2050 W State Route 89a -- #158	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-7%)	5mo	$130,000	$97	66
2050 W State Route 89a -- #86	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$35,000	$26	60
2050 W State Route 89-a -- #92	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$145,000	$108	59
2050 W SR 89-a -- #96	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	1mo	$155,000	$99	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-31,469
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-36,327
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86326

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
992 Sterling Ln Cottonwood, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,395	$1.45	21d	1	0.40mi
255 S Cottonwood Ranch Rd Cottonwood, AZ	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,195	$1.29	13d	1	1.16mi
1910 W Trail Blazer Dr Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,900	$2.27	13d	1	1.17mi
133 S 8th Pl Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,700	$1.67	13d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 350 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 349 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 348 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 347 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 345 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 344 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 342 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 341 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 340 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 339 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 336 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 335 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 334 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 333 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 332 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 331 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,229
• − Management: −$2,229
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$311
• After-tax cash flow: $2,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487)
• NCES district ID: 0402370
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,740
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8822
• State rank: #174 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cottonwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 24,852
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 24,852
• Household income: $57,378
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.27%
• Current HPI: 347.5058
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.22%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B