4506 S Holiday Ave · Springfield, MO 65810

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1974

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR READY!! This home is in probate and ready to be sold ASAP. We have emptied the home of the furnishings and fumigated it. It is in a great neighborhood on a quiet street ready for some TLC. Will make a great flip for the right investor. Contact is through the probate Attorney at 417-520-7586. Being sold As Is.

Key facts

• Built 1974
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.68%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2759 W Buena Vista St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+9%)	2mo	$234,900	$132	74
2764 W Vincent St	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,756 (+8%)	4mo	$245,600	$140	70
2398 W Allen Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,575 (-3%)	5mo	$284,900	$181	65
4530 S Shady Lane Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+5%)	1mo	$339,900	$199	62
2041 W Buena Vista St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,663 (+2%)	1mo	$308,000	$185	61
2301 W Camino Alto St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,819 (+12%)	2mo	$379,900	$209	58
2444 W Swallow St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-13%)	5mo	$239,900	$170	55
2782 W Lasalle St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+8%)	0mo	$289,900	$166	53
4236 S Shady Lake Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,486 (-8%)	5mo	$245,000	$165	52
4932 S Aaron Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,815 (+12%)	5mo	$419,900	$231	46
4442 S Appleton Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,854 (+14%)	1mo	$395,000	$213	40
4983 S Burrows Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,866 (+15%)	5mo	$399,900	$214	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,723
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $49,738
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65810

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,291/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2556 W Cardinal St Springfield, MO	4.0	2.0	2009	$2,295	$1.14	13d	1	0.24mi
2183 W Arlington St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,995	$1.08	23d	1	0.98mi
2208 W Chesterfield St Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	43d	5	1.02mi
4159 S El Salvador Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,095	$0.97	13d	1	1.14mi
1450 W Lark St Springfield, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,490	$1.60	13d	11	1.21mi
3015 W Roxbury St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	1.22mi
1326 W Sackett St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1672	$1,695	$1.01	43d	1	1.32mi
3480 S Christy Ct Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,338	$1.22	23d	1	1.36mi
3464 S Geri Ct Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,344	$1.08	23d	1	1.40mi
3462 S Doris Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,595	$1.06	43d	1	1.46mi
3891 S Hillsdale Ave Springfield, MO	4.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 321-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,291 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,455 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,291
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,056
• After-tax cash flow: $5,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $95,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.67%
• Current HPI: 194.8736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $150,000 FSBO.com
• 2005-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,291 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.