128 Trinity Drive Dr · Holley, NY 14470

$92,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot Est $69k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 128 Trinity Drive, a beautifully updated home nestled in a well-maintained community in Holley, NY! This move-in ready property showcases tasteful updates throughout, including newer luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures. The spacious open-concept living and dining area features a stunning fireplace with custom built-in bookshelves, a stylish barn door, and vaulted ceilings that add character and charm. The large, updated kitchen impresses with two-tone cabinetry, a center island with butcher block top, stainless steel appliances, all of which are included, and generous counter space — perfect for entertaining. Generous-sized bedrooms offer cozy carp

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessed value listed (for reference)
• Financial info: Land lease payment: $603 per month
• HOA & community: Property has a land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage)
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Double-wide manufactured home; Titan double-wide model; Resale property; Architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Open porch; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular lot (60 x 133)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Range hood; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Mixed/varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island; Open living/dining area; Pantry; Primary suite with bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.4% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $640 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $92,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.25%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Trinity Drive Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$82,500	$49	100
225 Sunset Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	8mo	$103,000	$61	86
537 Rockview Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-3%)	7mo	$94,000	$58	77
211 Sunset Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-7%)	1mo	$45,000	$29	76
127 Trinity Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+7%)	11mo	$62,000	$35	74
299 Sunset Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	10mo	$50,100	$32	72
155 Trinity Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	13mo	$55,000	$36	68
525 Rockview Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-4%)	19mo	$66,000	$41	66
283 Sunset Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	11mo	$47,500	$33	64
301 Sunset Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+13%)	17mo	$75,000	$39	55
291 Sunset Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	18mo	$70,000	$49	54
903 Cobblestone Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-11%)	12mo	$117,000	$78	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $14,202
• Equity at exit: $13,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $49,905
• Equity at exit: $7,998

Cash invested: $25,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14470

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $653/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $732

Max offer price $92,500

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,125
• Closing costs: $2,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $92,500 Active
4. 2021-04-13
   historical
5. 2021-03-03
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
6. 2021-02-12
   listed $42,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$455/yr (+$38/mo · 69.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,181
• − Property taxes: −$653
• − Insurance: −$462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$2,691
• Taxable income: $4,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,017
• After-tax cash flow: $4,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Holley, NY, showcases tasteful updates throughout, including newer luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures. The spacious open-concept living and dining area features a stunning fireplace with custom built-in bookshelves, a stylish barn door, and vaulted ceilings that add character and charm.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,765

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.80%
• Current HPI: 287.9167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+115.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $92,500 UNYREIS
• 2021-04-13 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2021-03-03 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2021-02-12 Listed $42,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $653 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.