14294 Tori Dawn Dr · Lyman, MS 39503

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2007 7,405 sqft lot $170/sqft · at area comps Est $211k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable home with new Hardie siding, ceiling fans, flooring etc. See repair list in MLS. Spacious great room and kitchen and dining area are great for entertaining and family gatherings. Call today for viewing! Call for income limits and first time buyer information.

Key facts

• Move-in-ready
• Carpeted bedrooms
• Ceramic tile

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE
• CARPETED BEDROOMS
• MOVE-IN-READY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs; Sidewalks; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway (concrete)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Deadbolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick veneer and siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year from public records)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Fenced yard with privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments; Deadbolt locks; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $215k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,313 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.34%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,405
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: 1.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14286 Tori Dawn Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,309 (+3%)	4mo	$215,000	$164	82
18346 Tiffany Renee Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+1%)	11mo	$205,000	$160	80
18320 Tiffany Renee Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+5%)	4mo	$177,500	$133	78
14957 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+1%)	10mo	$216,500	$170	62
18288 Tara Brooke Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+14%)	6mo	$219,900	$152	60
14951 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+6%)	7mo	$189,999	$141	56
14794 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+4%)	11mo	$219,000	$166	54
18225 Mill Cv	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+6%)	8mo	$232,000	$173	50
14507 Quail Ridge Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+9%)	11mo	$244,990	$178	48
14840 Audubon Lake Blvd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+11%)	11mo	$199,900	$142	47
14462 Quail Ridge Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+11%)	6mo	$234,500	$167	47
14447 Quail Ridge Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+9%)	12mo	$227,000	$165	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,134
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $41,426
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $827/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18278 Tara Brooke Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,800	$1.25	43d	1	0.15mi
14860 Audubon Lake Blvd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,850	$1.14	43d	1	0.41mi
18231 Mill Cv Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	13d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    listed $215,000 Active 853-char remark
16. 2017-01-17
    soldstatus $108,500
17. 2017-01-05
    soldstatus 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Adorable home with new Hardie siding, ceiling fans, flooring etc. See repair list in MLS. Spacious great room and kitchen and dining area are great for entertaining and family gatherings. Call today for viewing! Call for income limits and first time buyer information.

18. 2016-10-20
    listed $108,500 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Adorable home with new Hardie siding, ceiling fans, flooring etc. See repair list in MLS. Spacious great room and kitchen and dining area are great for entertaining and family gatherings. Call today for viewing! Call for income limits and first time buyer information.

19. 2016-06-30
    soldstatus $76,510
20. 2016-06-29
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Move right in this home with large living area high ceilings, kitchen features high ceilings and bay window. Property sold as is where is

21. 2015-11-18
    listed $76,510

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Move right in this home with large living area high ceilings, kitchen features high ceilings and bay window. Property sold as is where is

22. 2007-03-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,699 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$872/yr (+$73/mo · 105.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$827
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$244
• After-tax cash flow: $2,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyman, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+181.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $215,000 MLSU
• 2017-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $108,500 Public Records
• 2017-01-05 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-10-20 Listed $108,500 MLSU
• 2016-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $76,510 Public Records
• 2016-06-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2015-11-18 Listed $76,510 MLSU
• 2007-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $827 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.