4402 Virginia Dr · Holt, AL 35404

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1950 0.31 ac lot Est $164k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this newly remodeled home! It Features NEW BEAUTIFUL ceramic tile in the kitchen and bathrooms, with Hardwoods in the living area and bedrooms. Also, NEW Granite counter tops in the kitchen and bathrooms! NEW Stainless Steel appliances! It has been freshly painted throughout! It would make a great starter home, or your student with its close proximity to campus! It has a great back porch for entertaining, and a large yard. Also features a large detached workshop/extra storage space. Won't last long!

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• Tile flooring
• Wood cabinetry

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• TILE FLOORING
• WOOD CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Has carport; Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Asbestos construction material; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Corner lot; Paved road access; No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Living room fireplace; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#317 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary School (math 16% / reading 35%, grade F, #411 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 462 students, 87% FRL); Holt High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 435 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 45% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 33% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tuscaloosa County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.05%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4313 Virginia Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,064 (0%)	0mo	$160,000	$150	92
4503 Highpoint Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,057 (-1%)	14mo	$47,500	$45	78
4306 Virginia Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	982 (-8%)	4mo	$57,000	$58	72
3701 Crescent Gardens Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,103 (+4%)	3mo	$193,000	$175	71
3625 Crescent Gardens Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,141 (+7%)	2mo	$182,900	$160	63
3626 Crescent Gardens Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,146 (+8%)	2mo	$183,000	$160	62
4726 2nd St E	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+3%)	3mo	$169,000	$154	60
3645 Crescent Gardens Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	15mo	$178,685	$162	60
4500 6th St E	0.27mi	3/1.0	984 (-8%)	18mo	$83,000	$84	56
4309 Vassie Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+10%)	22mo	$88,000	$75	55
4 The Knl	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (-3%)	11mo	$140,000	$135	52
4621 Old Birmingham Hwy	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,103 (+4%)	23mo	$190,000	$172	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,952
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $57,648
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35404

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $418/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,190

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
931 Crescent Ridge Rd E Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	1.5	850	$995	$1.17	43d	1	0.45mi
3550 Crescent Gardens Dr Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	43d	1	0.57mi
5100 Old Birmingham Hwy Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	1.0–2.0	883	$1,460	$1.65	13d	1	0.64mi
4220 Keene Dr Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1119	$850	$0.76	21d	1	0.89mi
3218 Veterans Memorial Pkwy Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	3.0–3.5	1484	$1,950	$1.31	21d	1	0.95mi
419 30th Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,200	$2.58	13d	7	1.07mi
419 30th Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,400	$2.82	43d	5	1.07mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $159,900 Active
18. 2021-08-16
    soldstatus $109,900
19. 2021-08-02
    soldstatus $109,900
20. 2021-06-28
    listed $109,900
21. 2018-03-29
    soldstatus $72,500
22. 2018-03-21
    soldstatus $72,500 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Come see this newly remodeled home! It Features NEW BEAUTIFUL ceramic tile in the kitchen and bathrooms, with Hardwoods in the living area and bedrooms. Also, NEW Granite counter tops in the kitchen and bathrooms! NEW Stainless Steel appliances! It has been freshly painted throughout! It would make a great starter home, or your student with its close proximity to campus! It has a great back porch for entertaining, and a large yard. Also features a large detached workshop/extra storage space. Won't last long!

23. 2018-02-09
    listed $75,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Come see this newly remodeled home! It Features NEW BEAUTIFUL ceramic tile in the kitchen and bathrooms, with Hardwoods in the living area and bedrooms. Also, NEW Granite counter tops in the kitchen and bathrooms! NEW Stainless Steel appliances! It has been freshly painted throughout! It would make a great starter home, or your student with its close proximity to campus! It has a great back porch for entertaining, and a large yard. Also features a large detached workshop/extra storage space. Won't last long!

24. 2016-12-12
    soldstatus $22,500
25. 2016-08-24
    listed $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $418 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 56.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$418
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $1,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$354
• After-tax cash flow: $3,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Holt

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #19673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holt, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 23,553
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,445
• Household income: $48,932
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 44% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.00%
• Current HPI: 170.026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+471.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $159,900 WAMLS
• 2021-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 2021-08-02 Sold (MLS) $109,900 WAMLS
• 2021-06-28 Listed $109,900 WAMLS
• 2018-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2018-03-21 Sold (MLS) $72,500 WAMLS
• 2018-02-09 Listed $75,000 WAMLS
• 2016-12-12 Sold (MLS) $22,500 WAMLS
• 2016-08-24 Listed $28,000 WAMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $418 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.