109 Woodpecker Ln Lot 2419 · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$48,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 299 Days on market

Built 1990 Fair condition 5,227 sqft lot $80/sqft · 16% above area Est $41k · 16% over $159/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, clean & cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath trailer with screen room for sale in Trails End!! This spotless trailer has a unique design, 2 full bedrooms, AC, propane heat, light luxury vinyl flooring and new paint!! Level, graveled lot on a very quiet street, with shed and fire pit. Trails End has an amazing line of activities, and you're just in time for the festivities!! Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Screen room
• Unique design
• Level lot

Tags

• SCREEN ROOM
• UNIQUE DESIGN
• LEVEL LOT
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 5.9% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.27%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,482
• List price: $48,000
• Delta: 15.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Beaver Ln Lot 1102	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	600 (0%)	8mo	$47,000	$78	78
1944 Cardinal Ln Lot 1944	0.12mi	2/1.0	600 (0%)	21mo	$38,000	$63	77
237 Shohola Pkwy N	0.50mi	2/1.0	600 (0%)	17mo	$35,000	$58	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $69,253
• Equity at exit: $43,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 13.68×
• Total profit: $170,370
• Equity at exit: $93,253

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$159
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $621

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $159 · $1,908/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,000 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,000 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,000 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,000 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,000 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,000 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,000 Active 290 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,000 Active 289 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $48,000 Active 288 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $48,000 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $48,000 Active 284 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,000 Active 283 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,000 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,000 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    status Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Beautiful, clean & cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath trailer with screen room for sale in Trails End!! This spotless trailer has a unique design, 2 full bedrooms, AC, propane heat, light luxury vinyl flooring and new paint!! Level, graveled lot on a very quiet street, with shed and fire pit. Trails End has an amazing line of activities, and you're just in time for the festivities!! Make your appointment today!

16. 2025-10-06
    status Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Beautiful, clean & cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath trailer with screen room for sale in Trails End!! This spotless trailer has a unique design, 2 full bedrooms, AC, propane heat, light luxury vinyl flooring and new paint!! Level, graveled lot on a very quiet street, with shed and fire pit. Trails End has an amazing line of activities, and you're just in time for the festivities!! Make your appointment today!

17. 2025-08-22
    price $48,000 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Beautiful, clean & cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath trailer with screen room for sale in Trails End!! This spotless trailer has a unique design, 2 full bedrooms, AC, propane heat, light luxury vinyl flooring and new paint!! Level, graveled lot on a very quiet street, with shed and fire pit. Trails End has an amazing line of activities, and you're just in time for the festivities!! Make your appointment today!

18. 2025-07-11
    price $54,900 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Beautiful, clean & cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath trailer with screen room for sale in Trails End!! This spotless trailer has a unique design, 2 full bedrooms, AC, propane heat, light luxury vinyl flooring and new paint!! Level, graveled lot on a very quiet street, with shed and fire pit. Trails End has an amazing line of activities, and you're just in time for the festivities!! Make your appointment today!

19. 2025-06-29
    listed $59,900 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Beautiful, clean & cozy 2 bedroom, 1 bath trailer with screen room for sale in Trails End!! This spotless trailer has a unique design, 2 full bedrooms, AC, propane heat, light luxury vinyl flooring and new paint!! Level, graveled lot on a very quiet street, with shed and fire pit. Trails End has an amazing line of activities, and you're just in time for the festivities!! Make your appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − HOA: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $7,921
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,901
• After-tax cash flow: $6,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior and interior, including a new roof, siding, flooring, and windows. While the property is currently clean and has a unique design, it needs substantial work to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Roof — Severe wear and tear
• Major Exterior siding — Peeling and weathered
• Major Flooring — Worn and uneven
• Major Windows — Old and may need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and value
• Both Replace windows — Enhances energy efficiency and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Roof · Severe wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Peeling and weathered	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn and uneven	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Old and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Enhances energy efficiency and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-19.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-10-06 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $48,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $54,900 PWMLS
• 2025-06-29 Listed $59,900 PWMLS