1301 E Avenue I #348 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $148k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in a family-friendly park with low space rent. Buy this home with zero down on approved credit. Featuring new laminate flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, a stunning marble kitchen island, and brand-new kitchen cabinets this one is move-in ready and won't last long.

Key facts

• Low space rent
• New kitchen cabinets
• Community pool

Tags

• RENOVATED MOBILE HOME
• LOW SPACE RENT
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• MARBLE KITCHEN ISLAND
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,747/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.42%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 E Avenue I #348	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$159,000	$127	87
1301 E Avenue I Spc 246	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$130,000	$90	87
1301 E Avenue I #6	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$190,000	$132	77
1501 E Avenue I #147	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	4mo	$190,000	$154	71
1501 E Avenue I #135	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$155,000	$108	71
1501 E Avenue I #142	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	8mo	$135,000	$110	68
45800 Challenger Way #225	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$135,000	$100	58
45800 Challenger Way #181	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$159,000	$110	57
1449 E Avenue I Spc B22	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	13mo	$130,000	$108	55
45800 Challenger Way #304	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$169,000	$117	48
45800 Challenger Way #206	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$180,000	$125	42
45800 Challenger Way Spc 80	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	14mo	$165,000	$109	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $45,450
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $111,217
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,747 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $364/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $1,240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	1d	1	0.50mi
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	24d	1	0.66mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	4d	1	0.67mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	22d	1	0.67mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	15d	1	0.86mi
45402 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1237	$2,775	$2.24	1d	1	0.86mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	1d	1	0.86mi
1734 Lightcap St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,700	$1.84	1d	1	0.87mi
45428 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1244	$2,900	$2.33	1d	1	0.90mi
1004 E Newgrove St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,800	$2.41	1d	1	0.97mi
45465 25th St E Spc 10 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$825	$0.49	3d	1	1.01mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	1d	1	1.05mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,050	$1.93	1d	1	1.06mi
44532 15th St E #7 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,150	$2.02	24d	1	1.06mi
1253 Morven St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,995	$1.65	15d	1	1.08mi
1628 Cactus Dr Apt B Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,999	$2.00	1d	1	1.12mi
45426 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,975	$2.06	15d	1	1.15mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	2d	1	1.16mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	22d	1	1.16mi
44436 15th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$2,024	$1.92	1d	1	1.24mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1256	$2,395	$1.91	15d	1	1.26mi
1827 East Avenue J Unit 2 Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,850	$1.76	17d	1	1.36mi
2634 Avoca St Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	1722	$3,200	$1.86	1d	1	1.39mi
45027 Division St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1221	$2,600	$2.13	1d	1	1.48mi
44707 Cerisa St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1714	$3,000	$1.75	10d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   status Active
3. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-19
   listed $159,000 Active
5. 2015-03-27
   historical
6. 1997-03-14
   listed $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$844/yr (+$70/mo · 231.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$364
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,637
• − Management: −$2,637
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $12,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,120
• After-tax cash flow: $11,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+639.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $159,000 AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 1997-03-14 Listed $21,500 AVMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $364 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.