1648 Watauga Rd · Blue Mound, TX 76131

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1960 8,625 sqft lot Est $236k · 36% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * EXTREMELY MOTIVED SELLER, INVESTORS ONLY * * * Great location off Blue Mound Rd, near Western Center, 820 and 35. Per the owner, this property could be zoned as commercial spot for a business. The property has great bones but will need everything. No appliances. Detached garage, and owner states the home has more square footage than what is listed on TAD. Buyer to verify all information. Showings only for one day, please reach out to agent for questions. Cash only. No blind offers.

Key facts

• Zoned as commercial
• Detached garage
• 8,625 sq ft lot

Tags

• ZONED AS COMMERCIAL
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner parcel in Saginaw Park Add subdivision
• Financial info: Listing accepted cash offers (per listing terms)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Garage; Two covered/carport spaces; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Cable TV available; One living area; One dining area; Two total rooms (per listing)
• Laundry & utility: No washer/dryer listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#390 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD (urban): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #361 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: L A Gililland El (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 485 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 36% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.28%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,521
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1712 Glenn Dr	0.18mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,302 (+1%)	3mo	$149,900	$115	82
1712 Canyon Rdg	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+2%)	2mo	$256,900	$196	81
1708 Canyon Ridge St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-3%)	7mo	$245,000	$195	77
129 Collins Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-8%)	5mo	$199,000	$167	69
1929 Overland St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+9%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	63
1833 Capulin Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,359 (+6%)	9mo	$295,000	$217	56
1768 Americana Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-9%)	8mo	$195,000	$166	51
6440 Geneva Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,419 (+10%)	0mo	$259,000	$183	46
2109 Sweetwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+12%)	0mo	$260,000	$181	46
6437 Regina Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,419 (+10%)	4mo	$228,500	$161	45
5957 Missy Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+10%)	8mo	$275,000	$195	39
2201 Sweetwood Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+15%)	2mo	$279,900	$190	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-685
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,423
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76131

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,979/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,495

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1628 Americana Blvd Blue Mound, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,850	$1.55	7d	1	0.49mi
6029 Kristen Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,000	$1.40	24d	1	0.61mi
6309 Melanie Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,300	$1.43	17d	1	0.63mi
2016 Priscella Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,150	$1.32	3d	1	0.63mi
6109 Melanie Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,095	$1.19	17d	1	0.63mi
829 Minuteman Dr Blue Mound, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,140	$1.42	2d	1	0.65mi
1764 Independence Rd Blue Mound, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,899	$1.23	19d	1	0.68mi
2120 Ingrid Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1847	$2,549	$1.38	12d	1	0.80mi
2016 Elderica Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1381	$2,428	$1.76	7d	5	0.80mi
5832 Melanie Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,985	$1.43	2d	1	0.86mi
100 Creek Terrace Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,280	$1.26	24d	1	0.91mi
2600 Western Center Blvd Fort Worth, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1192	$1,589	$1.33	1d	12	0.92mi
144 Creek Terrace Dr Saginaw, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$2,195	$1.21	11d	1	0.92mi
2650 Western Center Blvd Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,885	$1.96	2d	28	0.99mi
853 Atchison Dr Saginaw, TX	4.0	2.0	1748	$2,100	$1.20	24d	1	1.01mi
1016 Grand Central Pkwy Saginaw, TX	3.0	2.0	1757	$2,104	$1.20	20d	1	1.03mi
915 Santa Fe Dr Saginaw, TX	4.0	2.0	1744	$8,950	$5.13	24d	1	1.10mi
7401 Cowhand Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,099	$1.28	2d	1	1.10mi
1101 Trinity Trl Saginaw, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,055	$1.29	2d	1	1.13mi
5900 Ozark Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1751	$2,100	$1.20	17d	1	1.15mi
2357 Bernese Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,150	$1.21	21d	1	1.17mi
6415 Old Denton Rd Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$2,188	$1.94	1d	19	1.18mi
157 Spring Hollow Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1737	$2,249	$1.29	2d	1	1.19mi
6301 Old Denton Rd Unit 6334 Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,947	$1.48	2d	1	1.20mi
6301 Old Denton Rd Unit 6338 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,517	$1.29	2d	1	1.20mi
6301 Old Denton Rd Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,535	$1.31	20d	1	1.20mi
6301 Old Denton Rd Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,535	$1.31	18d	1	1.20mi
6301 Old Denton Rd Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,555	$1.33	2d	1	1.20mi
1350 N Blue Mound Rd Fort Worth, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	958	$1,740	$1.82	1d	18	1.41mi
2424 Gelbray Pl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,150	$1.32	17d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   price $150,000
2. 2026-03-16
   price $160,000
3. 2026-03-02
   price $189,800
4. 2026-01-25
   listed $189,900 Active
5. 2024-10-02
   price $189,900
6. 2024-10-01
   price $229,800
7. 2024-09-23
   listed $229,900 Active
8. 2022-04-26
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,979 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,979 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,979
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$840
• After-tax cash flow: $4,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817700
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $72,781
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #4945
• State rank: #361 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Mound

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #8123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Mound, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 56,322
• Household income: $108,694
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1805.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 6% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.06%
• Current HPI: 249.22
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $189,800 NTREIS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $229,800 NTREIS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2022-04-26 Listed $199,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,979 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.