1158 Toledo Bend Dr · College Station, TX 77845

$274,385

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,293 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Amber is a single-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featured in the Midtown Reserve Community in College Station, TX, with approximately 1,293 square feet of living space. When you enter the home, you’ll immediately find the utility room with garage access off the foyer. Continuing through the entry, you’ll be greeted by the spacious open-concept kitchen, living, and dining room area. The kitchen boasts modern shaker cabinetry, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Next to the kitchen are both secondary bedrooms complete with a closet and window in each along, with carpeted flooring. The secondary bathroom is located here as well and offers a shower/tub combo with ceramic tile surround. You can also find a storage closet in this hallway. Towards the back of the home, is the primary bedroom. This bedroom has two windows for plenty of natural light and an in-suite primary bathroom complete with a roomy walk-in closet. Homeowners will also enjoy living room access to the covered patio and fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• MODERN SHAKER CABINETRY
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• IN-SUITE PRIMARY BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA of Midtown; Annual association fee of $500 covering common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story layout; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Built in 2026; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor; One bedroom (first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Programmable thermostat; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances

🏗️ New construction. The $274,385 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,213.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southwood Valley El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 658 students, 63% FRL); A & M Consolidated Middle (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 710 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 24% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $217,735 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,213
• List price: $274,385
• Delta: -3.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1134 Toledo Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,293 (0%)	1mo	$276,435	$214	99
1179 Toledo Bnd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,293 (0%)	4mo	$274,500	$212	97
873 Kickapoo Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,293 (0%)	6mo	$281,305	$218	88
1162 Toledo Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+8%)	1mo	$282,035	$203	86
1167 Toledo Bnd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+8%)	3mo	$283,955	$204	85
893 Kickapoo Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,293 (0%)	5mo	$279,995	$217	80
1121 Amistad Loop	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,393 (+8%)	3mo	$254,900	$183	75
1079 Toledo Bend Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+11%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	72
890 Kickapoo Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+8%)	8mo	$288,665	$208	69
918 Kickapoo Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+13%)	1mo	$285,000	$196	68
895 Kickapoo Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+8%)	6mo	$296,275	$213	66
910 Kickapoo Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+14%)	8mo	$254,900	$174	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-63,928
• Equity at exit: $42,377

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-77,714
• Equity at exit: $24,574

Cash invested: $79,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77845

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,490
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$355 /mo · $4,263/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,539

Max offer price $242,825

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,053
• Closing costs: $8,526
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
967 Toledo Bend Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,300	$1.24	21d	1	0.05mi
1206 Amistad Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,100	$1.35	44d	1	0.08mi
1218 Amistad Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1855	$2,300	$1.24	21d	1	0.10mi
975 Lady Bird Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1829	$2,450	$1.34	44d	1	0.10mi
841 Mineral Wells Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,450	$1.55	14d	1	0.15mi
960 Lady Bird Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1565	$2,200	$1.41	14d	1	0.16mi
760 Double Mountain Rd College Station, TX	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,400	$1.31	21d	1	0.17mi
1012 Amistad Loop College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$2,350	$1.47	14d	1	0.20mi
950 Town Lake Dr Unit 5302 College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,642	$1.56	44d	1	0.25mi
950 Town Lake Dr Unit 7207 College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,796	$1.57	44d	1	0.25mi
950 Town Lake Dr Unit 5312 College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,646	$1.57	44d	1	0.25mi
950 Town Lake Dr Unit 4212 College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,647	$1.59	44d	1	0.29mi
950 Town Lake Dr College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1082	$1,650	$1.52	44d	1	0.29mi
889 Kickapoo Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	44d	1	0.31mi
4011 Texas 6 Frontage Rd College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,100	$0.99	44d	1	0.84mi
4011 Windswept Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,000	$1.52	44d	1	1.01mi
4009 Hunter Creek Dr College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,000	$1.12	21d	1	1.15mi
1505 Richland Ct N College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1610	$2,250	$1.40	21d	1	1.26mi
3717 Dove Crossing Ln College Station, TX	4.0	3.0	1692	$2,100	$1.24	44d	1	1.32mi
1407 Front Royal Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,000	$1.35	44d	1	1.34mi
922 Turtle Dove Trl College Station, TX	4.0	3.0	1764	$2,200	$1.25	44d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $274,385 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,385 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,385 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,385 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,385 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $274,385 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $274,385 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $274,385 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $274,385 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,385 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    listed $279,985 Active 1411-char remark
12. 2026-05-05
    listed $279,985 Active 986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

    The Amber is a single-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featured in the Midtown Reserve Community in College Station, TX, with approximately 1,293 square feet of living space. When you enter the home, you’ll immediately find the utility room with garage access off the foyer. Continuing through the entry, you’ll be greeted by the spacious open-concept kitchen, living, and dining room area. The kitchen boasts modern shaker cabinetry, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Next to the kitchen are both secondary bedrooms complete with a closet and window in each along, with carpeted flooring. The secondary bathroom is located here as well and offers a shower/tub combo with ceramic tile surround. You can also find a storage closet in this hallway. Towards the back of the home, is the primary bedroom. This bedroom has two windows for plenty of natural light and an in-suite primary bathroom complete with a roomy walk-in closet. Homeowners will also enjoy living room access to the covered patio and fenced backyard.

13. 2026-05-05
    listed $279,985 Active

    Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

    The Amber is a single-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home featured in the Midtown Reserve Community in College Station, TX, with approximately 1,293 square feet of living space. When you enter the home, you’ll immediately find the utility room with garage access off the foyer. Continuing through the entry, you’ll be greeted by the spacious open-concept kitchen, living, and dining room area. The kitchen boasts modern shaker cabinetry, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Next to the kitchen are both secondary bedrooms complete with a closet and window in each along, with carpeted flooring. The secondary bathroom is located here as well and offers a shower/tub combo with ceramic tile surround. You can also find a storage closet in this hallway. Towards the back of the home, is the primary bedroom. This bedroom has two windows for plenty of natural light and an in-suite primary bathroom complete with a roomy walk-in closet. Homeowners will also enjoy living room access to the covered patio and fenced backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,920
• − Property taxes: −$4,263
• − Insurance: −$1,421
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,268
• Taxable loss: −$8,429
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,023
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Station ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807350
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,991
• Composite: 46.54/100
• National rank: #2428
• State rank: #113 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College Station, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,764
• Household income: $88,851
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3329.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.31%
• Current HPI: 175.9669
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — BCSRMLS
• 2026-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $274,385 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $274,385 BCSRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $279,985 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $279,985 BCSRMLS