8 Lawndale Rd · Chautauqua, NY 14757

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 8.64 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare opportunity awaits to own a move in ready, newer seasonal home situated in a tranquil, quaint neighborhood on Chautauqua Lake. You are steps from the water to soak in summer, sit and enjoy beautiful sunrises and sunsets from the newer dock or gazebo. This property is minutes from Chautauqua Institution, Mayville, and Bemus Point which offer activities sun up to sun down, warm summer strolls along the lake, dining and shopping. This home was manufactured in 2019 offering peace of mind. There are 2 bedrooms and 2 baths with an easy open layout. The porch, built in 2021, offers additional space to be outside and enjoy that lake air. No need to worry about storage, the shed also built in 2021 provides that extra space. The Lawndale park rules state that no pets are allowed and any offers are also subject to park approval. Come and see this affordable lake life home before it's gone!

Key facts

• Manufactured in 2019
• Newer dock
• Newer gazebo

Tags

• TRANQUIL NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEWER DOCK
• NEWER GAZEBO
• MANUFACTURED IN 2019
• PORCH BUILT IN 2021
• SHED BUILT IN 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($892 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 0.0% in Chautauqua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,029 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-, schools D.
• Chautauqua Lake Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #218 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.60%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $21,326
• Equity at exit: $30,117

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $57,706
• Equity at exit: $45,418

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14757

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $69,900 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-04-14
   listed $69,900 Active 898-char remark

   Show marketing remark (898 chars)

   A rare opportunity awaits to own a move in ready, newer seasonal home situated in a tranquil, quaint neighborhood on Chautauqua Lake. You are steps from the water to soak in summer, sit and enjoy beautiful sunrises and sunsets from the newer dock or gazebo. This property is minutes from Chautauqua Institution, Mayville, and Bemus Point which offer activities sun up to sun down, warm summer strolls along the lake, dining and shopping. This home was manufactured in 2019 offering peace of mind. There are 2 bedrooms and 2 baths with an easy open layout. The porch, built in 2021, offers additional space to be outside and enjoy that lake air. No need to worry about storage, the shed also built in 2021 provides that extra space. The Lawndale park rules state that no pets are allowed and any offers are also subject to park approval. Come and see this affordable lake life home before it's gone!

7. 2025-10-10
   historical
8. 2025-09-09
   price $73,500
9. 2025-08-03
   price $79,900
10. 2025-07-10
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$857
• − Management: −$857
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $1,647
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$395
• After-tax cash flow: $2,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chautauqua Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600018
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 52.84/100
• National rank: #1535
• State rank: #218 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chautauqua

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1029
• US rank: #20164

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 292
• Population (ZIP): 3,112

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• Current HPI: 318.9521
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $73,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS