21655 Alcorn Dr · Moreno Valley, CA 92557

$550,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1988 9,148 sqft lot Est $670k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

N OF FRWY IN DESIRABLE BOX SPRINGS, A WONDERFUL HOME ON A CORNER LOT WITH EXTRA DEEP 2-CAR GARAGE, RV HOOK-UP, SHELTER AND PAD. ADT ALARM SYSTEM. HIGH CEILINGS WELCOME YOU IN LIVING ROOM & DINING AREA. THIS PRIVATE HOMEHSA LOVELY LANDSCAPING AND HAS A 600 SQFT BONUS ROOM WITH MANY POSSIBILITIES TO TOTAL 1813 SQFT!!! CALL LISTING OFFICE. LOOK FOR MERCEDES

Key facts

• Versatile space
• Large corner lot
• Generous layout

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• TWO PRIMARY RETREATS
• MULTI-GENERATIONAL LIVING
• GENEROUS LAYOUT
• VERSATILE SPACE
• UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: No monthly association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Two additional uncovered/assigned spaces; On-street parking and driveway; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Sewer connected and paid; Not a PUD
• Home design: Ranch-style single-family home; Detached property; One story
• Construction: Tile roof; Brick and siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered concrete slab patio; Wood fencing (fenced yard); Back yard; Utilities underground; Level areas; Corner lot on a hillside; Mountain and trees/woods views; Fire alarm

Interior

• Kitchen: Tile countertops; Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Two master bedrooms with walk-in closets and master suites
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Two master baths; Shower stall and shower-over-tub options; Double vanities
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with forced air and fireplace(s); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Recessed lighting; High (9 ft+) ceilings; Ground-level entry with no steps; French doors; Drapes and mini blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($371/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $444k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $444k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Moreno Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#838 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moreno Valley Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,050 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,440/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 1627% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $550k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $443,954 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $670,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21655 Alcorn Dr	0.00mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,368 (0%)	0mo	$591,400	$250	95
21484 Dickinson Rd	0.28mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,321 (-2%)	2mo	$730,000	$315	73
21480 Marston Ct	0.25mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,321 (-2%)	6mo	$658,000	$283	71
21305 Ocasey Ct	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,321 (-2%)	14mo	$650,000	$280	62
21183 Gallant Fox Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,243 (-5%)	3mo	$625,000	$279	56
21329 Tennyson	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-13%)	6mo	$530,000	$258	48
22146 Naples Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,117 (-11%)	10mo	$679,990	$321	47
21182 Tennyson	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-13%)	2mo	$645,000	$314	47
21200 Lands End	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-13%)	6mo	$605,000	$295	45
21401 Greyson	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,708 (+14%)	1mo	$700,000	$258	43
21095 Gallant Fox Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,243 (-5%)	17mo	$650,000	$290	41
11414 Chaucer St	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,569 (+8%)	15mo	$668,000	$260	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-91,711
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-95,653
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92557

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,355/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$932
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,400

Max offer price $550,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21498 Townsendia Ave Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	3.0	2067	$3,100	$1.50	13d	1	0.21mi
21585 Del Amo St Moreno Valley, CA	5.0	3.0	2897	$7,500	$2.59	44d	1	0.26mi
21484 Dickinson Rd Moreno Valley, CA	5.0	2.5	2321	$5,000	$2.15	24d	1	0.31mi
22414 Scarlet Sage Way Moreno Valley, CA	5.0	3.0	1720	$6,800	$3.95	44d	1	0.78mi
22649 Climbing Rose Dr Moreno Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	2425	$3,350	$1.38	44d	1	1.01mi
1498 Haddington Dr Riverside, CA	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,995	$1.38	24d	1	1.24mi
20450 College Blvd Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1856	$3,200	$1.72	24d	1	1.26mi
22248 Silverbell Ln Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	2095	$2,995	$1.43	44d	1	1.39mi
20351 Harvard Way Riverside, CA	3.0	3.5	2700	$3,400	$1.26	44d	1	1.40mi
11923 Hartland Pl Moreno Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1655	$3,100	$1.87	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $550,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $550,000 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
3. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-04-08
   listed $550,000 Active
5. 2003-10-13
   historical
6. 2003-07-29
   listed $284,900
7. 2002-10-07
   soldstatus $165,000 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   N OF FRWY IN DESIRABLE BOX SPRINGS, A WONDERFUL HOME ON A CORNER LOT WITH EXTRA DEEP 2-CAR GARAGE, RV HOOK-UP, SHELTER AND PAD. ADT ALARM SYSTEM. HIGH CEILINGS WELCOME YOU IN LIVING ROOM & DINING AREA. THIS PRIVATE HOMEHSA LOVELY LANDSCAPING AND HAS A 600 SQFT BONUS ROOM WITH MANY POSSIBILITIES TO TOTAL 1813 SQFT!!! CALL LISTING OFFICE. LOOK FOR MERCEDES

8. 2002-10-04
   soldstatus $165,000
9. 2002-10-04
   soldstatus $165,000
10. 2002-09-16
    historical 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    N OF FRWY IN DESIRABLE BOX SPRINGS, A WONDERFUL HOME ON A CORNER LOT WITH EXTRA DEEP 2-CAR GARAGE, RV HOOK-UP, SHELTER AND PAD. ADT ALARM SYSTEM. HIGH CEILINGS WELCOME YOU IN LIVING ROOM & DINING AREA. THIS PRIVATE HOMEHSA LOVELY LANDSCAPING AND HAS A 600 SQFT BONUS ROOM WITH MANY POSSIBILITIES TO TOTAL 1813 SQFT!!! CALL LISTING OFFICE. LOOK FOR MERCEDES

11. 2002-07-26
    listed $169,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    N OF FRWY IN DESIRABLE BOX SPRINGS, A WONDERFUL HOME ON A CORNER LOT WITH EXTRA DEEP 2-CAR GARAGE, RV HOOK-UP, SHELTER AND PAD. ADT ALARM SYSTEM. HIGH CEILINGS WELCOME YOU IN LIVING ROOM & DINING AREA. THIS PRIVATE HOMEHSA LOVELY LANDSCAPING AND HAS A 600 SQFT BONUS ROOM WITH MANY POSSIBILITIES TO TOTAL 1813 SQFT!!! CALL LISTING OFFICE. LOOK FOR MERCEDES

12. 2002-07-26
    listed $169,000

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    N OF FRWY IN DESIRABLE BOX SPRINGS, A WONDERFUL HOME ON A CORNER LOT WITH EXTRA DEEP 2-CAR GARAGE, RV HOOK-UP, SHELTER AND PAD. ADT ALARM SYSTEM. HIGH CEILINGS WELCOME YOU IN LIVING ROOM & DINING AREA. THIS PRIVATE HOMEHSA LOVELY LANDSCAPING AND HAS A 600 SQFT BONUS ROOM WITH MANY POSSIBILITIES TO TOTAL 1813 SQFT!!! CALL LISTING OFFICE. LOOK FOR MERCEDES

13. 1996-05-29
    soldstatus $101,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$4,355
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,262
• − Management: −$4,262
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$9,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,199
• After-tax cash flow: $2,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moreno Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625800
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,495
• Composite: 28.36/100
• National rank: #12131
• State rank: #1050 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Moreno Valley

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #838
• US rank: #23203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moreno Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 212,104
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,061
• Household income: $94,804
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 19% Black 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.93%
• Current HPI: 388.882
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.00%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+441.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Contingent — GPSMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $550,000 GPSMLS
• 2003-10-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2003-07-29 Listed $284,900 CRMLS
• 2002-10-07 Sold (MLS) $165,000 TheMLS
• 2002-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-04 Sold (MLS) $165,000 CRMLS
• 2002-09-16 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2002-07-26 Listed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2002-07-26 Listed $169,000 TheMLS
• 1996-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $101,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,355 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.