8511 Long Boat Ln · Hudson, FL 34667

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1978 7,000 sqft lot Est $220k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * Seller willing to help with buyer closing cost * * * * Step back in time with this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Sea Pines community! Built in 1978 and offering 1,378 living square feet, this is a great home, priced right and perfect for a first-time home buyer. Featuring a spacious layout with a one-car garage, this property offers a unique opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and update to their own style. The open living and dining areas provide great natural light, while the kitchen offers ample space and functionality. A standout feature of the home is the beautiful stone fireplace, adding warmth and character to the main living space perfect for creating a cozy focal point. Enjoy Florida living with a screened-in lanai overlooking a private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located close to beaches, shopping, and restaurants, this home offers both lifestyle and location. This property has a repaired sinkhole and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Don't miss your chance to bring your vision to life in this well-located home!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Stone fireplace
• Screened in lanai

Tags

• STONE FIREPLACE
• SCREENED IN LANAI
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• DESIRABLE SEA PINES COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.16 acre (approximately 650 m²); Zoned R4; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 1 story
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Screened porch; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Stone fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-316/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (2.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.3% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Primary Academy (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 90% FRL); Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.28%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,106
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8640 Horizon Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-2%)	9mo	$230,000	$179	79
8611 Jolly Roger Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-7%)	6mo	$250,000	$205	78
8523 Lafitte Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+9%)	5mo	$131,000	$91	76
8317 Needles Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+4%)	10mo	$250,000	$183	73
8637 Summer Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+8%)	5mo	$236,000	$165	72
8524 Winter Haven Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,278 (-3%)	9mo	$214,000	$167	71
15836 Lyle Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+6%)	7mo	$313,000	$223	65
8316 Needles Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (+7%)	10mo	$135,000	$96	62
16034 Pine Ridge Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+12%)	6mo	$244,900	$166	60
15847 Adobe Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+12%)	2mo	$190,000	$129	57
16038 Tree Line Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (+12%)	4mo	$278,000	$188	56
8340 Saint Marks Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+14%)	10mo	$158,000	$106	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-37,571
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-57,740
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 800
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $180,244

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $26	+0% $-26	+5% $-79	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-110	+0% $-26	+5% $58	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $21	base $-26	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8512 Longboat Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	19d	1	0.02mi
8516 Inwood Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	6d	1	0.07mi
8316 Needles Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1407	$1,900	$1.35	14d	1	0.28mi
15902 Spyglass Ter Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,512	$1.23	0d	18	0.54mi
7527 Hatteras Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,495	$1.64	26d	1	1.14mi
7538 Mako Dr Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	1686	$1,895	$1.12	26d	1	1.17mi
7841 Akron Ave Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,655	$1.34	5d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $184,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $189,900 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    * * * Seller willing to help with buyer closing cost * * * * Step back in time with this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Sea Pines community! Built in 1978 and offering 1,378 living square feet, this is a great home, priced right and perfect for a first-time home buyer. Featuring a spacious layout with a one-car garage, this property offers a unique opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and update to their own style. The open living and dining areas provide great natural light, while the kitchen offers ample space and functionality. A standout feature of the home is the beautiful stone fireplace, adding warmth and character to the main living space perfect for creating a cozy focal point. Enjoy Florida living with a screened-in lanai overlooking a private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located close to beaches, shopping, and restaurants, this home offers both lifestyle and location. This property has a repaired sinkhole and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Don't miss your chance to bring your vision to life in this well-located home!

15. 2026-05-19
    price $189,900

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    * * * Seller willing to help with buyer closing cost * * * * Step back in time with this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Sea Pines community! Built in 1978 and offering 1,378 living square feet, this is a great home, priced right and perfect for a first-time home buyer. Featuring a spacious layout with a one-car garage, this property offers a unique opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and update to their own style. The open living and dining areas provide great natural light, while the kitchen offers ample space and functionality. A standout feature of the home is the beautiful stone fireplace, adding warmth and character to the main living space perfect for creating a cozy focal point. Enjoy Florida living with a screened-in lanai overlooking a private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located close to beaches, shopping, and restaurants, this home offers both lifestyle and location. This property has a repaired sinkhole and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Don't miss your chance to bring your vision to life in this well-located home!

16. 2026-04-28
    price $194,900 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    * * * Seller willing to help with buyer closing cost * * * * Step back in time with this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Sea Pines community! Built in 1978 and offering 1,378 living square feet, this is a great home, priced right and perfect for a first-time home buyer. Featuring a spacious layout with a one-car garage, this property offers a unique opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and update to their own style. The open living and dining areas provide great natural light, while the kitchen offers ample space and functionality. A standout feature of the home is the beautiful stone fireplace, adding warmth and character to the main living space perfect for creating a cozy focal point. Enjoy Florida living with a screened-in lanai overlooking a private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located close to beaches, shopping, and restaurants, this home offers both lifestyle and location. This property has a repaired sinkhole and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Don't miss your chance to bring your vision to life in this well-located home!

17. 2026-04-28
    price $194,900

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    * * * Seller willing to help with buyer closing cost * * * * Step back in time with this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Sea Pines community! Built in 1978 and offering 1,378 living square feet, this is a great home, priced right and perfect for a first-time home buyer. Featuring a spacious layout with a one-car garage, this property offers a unique opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and update to their own style. The open living and dining areas provide great natural light, while the kitchen offers ample space and functionality. A standout feature of the home is the beautiful stone fireplace, adding warmth and character to the main living space perfect for creating a cozy focal point. Enjoy Florida living with a screened-in lanai overlooking a private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located close to beaches, shopping, and restaurants, this home offers both lifestyle and location. This property has a repaired sinkhole and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Don't miss your chance to bring your vision to life in this well-located home!

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $199,999 Active 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    * * * Seller willing to help with buyer closing cost * * * * Step back in time with this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Sea Pines community! Built in 1978 and offering 1,378 living square feet, this is a great home, priced right and perfect for a first-time home buyer. Featuring a spacious layout with a one-car garage, this property offers a unique opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and update to their own style. The open living and dining areas provide great natural light, while the kitchen offers ample space and functionality. A standout feature of the home is the beautiful stone fireplace, adding warmth and character to the main living space perfect for creating a cozy focal point. Enjoy Florida living with a screened-in lanai overlooking a private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located close to beaches, shopping, and restaurants, this home offers both lifestyle and location. This property has a repaired sinkhole and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Don't miss your chance to bring your vision to life in this well-located home!

19. 2026-03-25
    listed $199,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (1159 chars)

    * * * Seller willing to help with buyer closing cost * * * * Step back in time with this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Sea Pines community! Built in 1978 and offering 1,378 living square feet, this is a great home, priced right and perfect for a first-time home buyer. Featuring a spacious layout with a one-car garage, this property offers a unique opportunity for buyers looking to personalize and update to their own style. The open living and dining areas provide great natural light, while the kitchen offers ample space and functionality. A standout feature of the home is the beautiful stone fireplace, adding warmth and character to the main living space perfect for creating a cozy focal point. Enjoy Florida living with a screened-in lanai overlooking a private backyard, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located close to beaches, shopping, and restaurants, this home offers both lifestyle and location. This property has a repaired sinkhole and presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to make a home their own. Don't miss your chance to bring your vision to life in this well-located home!

20. 2026-03-06
    historical
21. 2025-12-16
    price $147,000
22. 2025-11-26
    price $147,500
23. 2025-10-27
    price $149,900
24. 2025-10-09
    price $158,900
25. 2025-09-16
    listed $159,900 Active
26. 2025-09-15
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,775 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,775 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$6,043
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$3,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+51.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $189,900 HCAR
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $194,900 HCAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $194,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $199,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $199,999 HCAR
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $147,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $158,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,775 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.