Ponderosa Plan · Flagstaff, AZ 86005

$765,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Good condition $120/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Cash flow +0.7/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled within the world's largest stand of Ponderosa Pines, The Highlands at Tovar Springs offers the perfect harmony of natural beauty and modern living. Situated in Flagstaff's stunning landscapes, this new community provides the tranquility of mountain living with the convenience of a vibrant, thriving town. The Ponderosa floorplan, a single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, is thoughtfully designed for comfort and flexibility. This home is crafted for year-round enjoyment, ideal as a seasonal getaway or a primary residence.

Key facts

• Primary residence
• Single-story home
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• PRIMARY RESIDENCE

🏗️ New construction. The $765,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $789,986.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $765k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-41k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (60.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (63.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (63.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Manuel Demiguel Elementary School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 579 students, 19% FRL); Mount Elden Middle School (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 757 students, 51% FRL); Flagstaff High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,620 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($673k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,599 (63.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.33%
• DSCR: 0.18
• GRM: 23.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $789,986
• List price: $765,000
• Delta: -3.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2297 Shaded Spring Trl	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,897 (0%)	1mo	$821,500	$433	98
2212 Asi Va Spring Trl	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,897 (0%)	3mo	$915,000	$482	95
1940 Sand Spring Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,897 (0%)	1mo	$766,450	$404	94
1914 Sand Spring Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,897 (0%)	2mo	$787,700	$415	94
2300 Shaded Spring Trl	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,897 (0%)	4mo	$812,500	$428	88
2348 Shaded Spring Trl	0.02mi	3/2.5	2,042 (+8%)	4mo	$827,500	$405	83
1941 Sand Spring Trl	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,042 (+8%)	8mo	$792,700	$388	77
1928 Sand Spring Trl	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,042 (+8%)	10mo	$805,150	$394	76
2451 Hano Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-10%)	4mo	$460,000	$270	58
2433 Hano Trl	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,717 (-10%)	11mo	$623,000	$363	56
2388 Black Falls Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,835 (-3%)	24mo	$575,000	$313	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -48.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-328,350
• Equity at exit: $117,789

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.24×
• Total profit: $-495,514
• Equity at exit: $68,304

Cash invested: $221,196 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $809,500 ($421/sqft)
• Median days on market: 37 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86005

• Rents YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 22.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,143
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$987 /mo · $11,850/yr
• Insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-3,378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,063

Max offer price $301,114

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,833	-5% $-3,106	+0% $-3,378	+5% $-3,651	+10% $-3,924
Rent	-10% $-3,599	-5% $-3,489	+0% $-3,378	+5% $-3,268	+10% $-3,158
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,981	-0.5pp $-3,178	base $-3,378	+0.5pp $-3,583	+1.0pp $-3,791

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $197,496
• Closing costs: $23,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2145 William Palmer Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	1756	$12,000	$6.83	93d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $765,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $765,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $765,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $765,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $765,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $765,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $765,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $765,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $765,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $765,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $765,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $765,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $765,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $765,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $765,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $765,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $765,000 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $765,000 Active 139 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $765,000 Active 138 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $765,000 Active 137 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $765,000 Active 136 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $765,000 Active 135 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $765,000 Active 134 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $765,000 Active 133 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $765,000 Active 132 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $765,000 Active 131 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $765,000 Active 130 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $765,000 Active 129 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $765,000 Active 128 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $765,000 Active 127 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $765,000 Active 126 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $765,000 Active 125 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $765,000 Active 124 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $765,000 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $765,000 Active 122 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $765,000 Active 121 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $765,000 Active 120 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $765,000 Active 119 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $765,000 Active 116 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $765,000 Active 115 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $765,000 Active 113 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $765,000 Active 112 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $765,000 Active 111 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $765,000 Active 110 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $765,000 Active 109 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $765,000 Active 107 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $765,000 Active 106 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $765,000 Active 104 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $765,000 Active 103 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $765,000 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,251
• − Property taxes: −$11,850
• − Insurance: −$3,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,675
• − Management: −$2,675
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$22,981
• Taxable loss: −$56,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,534
• After-tax cash flow: $-27,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,485–$28,455 screening

This single-story home in Ponderosa Village is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and cleaning the gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Keeps the home looking well-maintained and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Weitzel's Puente De Hozho Bilingual Magnet School F AZ #505/1,109 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Mount Elden Middle School F AZ #134/218 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Flagstaff High School F AZ #154/381 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Coconino County · 150,645 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,961
• Household income: $87,942
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Native American 9% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.98%
• Current HPI: 408.8541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.13%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $765,000 Zillow