7451 Ryan St · Fayetteville, NC 28314

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 975 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $170k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

-Great starter home or investment purchase. Convenient to Ft. Bragg, shopping, eateries, and schools.

Key facts

• Investment purchase
• Garage
• Built 1974

Tags

• INVESTMENT PURCHASE
• CONVENIENT TO FT BRAGG
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT TO EATERIES
• CONVENIENT TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed by Longleaf Pine Realtors / MAIN STREET REALTY INC.

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered space; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Subdivision: LOCH LOMOND; Directions: North on Reilly Rd from Cliffdale, right on Baldoon, first right on Ryan; home on the right

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morganton Road Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 499 students, 99% FRL); Westover Middle (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #396 of 475 statewide, top 84%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Westover High (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #387 of 535 statewide, top 73%, 1,202 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $125k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7425 Ryan St	0.10mi	3/2.0	943 (-3%)	1mo	$170,000	$180	89
7410 Ryan St	0.16mi	3/1.5	973 (-0%)	12mo	$186,000	$191	80
306 Desmond Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+3%)	5mo	$136,000	$135	75
7206 Shelby Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	980 (+0%)	5mo	$190,000	$194	73
921 Glen Reilly Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,095 (+12%)	2mo	$115,000	$105	68
6785 Winchester St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,087 (+12%)	3mo	$182,000	$167	67
937 Glen Reilly Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+13%)	4mo	$210,000	$191	66
549 Hickorywood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,044 (+7%)	10mo	$186,000	$178	62
6710 Winchester St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,078 (+11%)	8mo	$170,000	$158	57
417 Perth St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+12%)	10mo	$143,000	$131	56
7264 Ainsley St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+8%)	8mo	$168,000	$159	52
6839 Torrance Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+13%)	13mo	$191,570	$174	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,797
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $16,227
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28314

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,898/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $275	+0% $240	+5% $205	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $185	+0% $240	+5% $295	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $272	base $240	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 S Reilly Rd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,349	$1.36	15d	1	0.14mi
916 Glen Reilly Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1071	$1,400	$1.31	24d	1	0.19mi
6407 Wallaby Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	15d	1	0.28mi
6734 Winchester St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1068	$3,195	$2.99	15d	1	0.30mi
6855 Shawcross Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.34mi
625 Marshtree Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1170	$1,275	$1.09	15d	2	0.41mi
540 Auburndale Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	15d	1	0.44mi
1014 Brookhollow Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,000	$0.95	15d	1	0.45mi
1022 Brookhollow Dr #5 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,050	$0.97	24d	1	0.50mi
1000 Wood Creek Dr #9 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	24d	1	0.53mi
1018 Wood Creek Dr #9 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,195	$1.09	24d	1	0.55mi
567 Cutchen Ln Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,425	$1.46	15d	61	0.59mi
6809 Willowbrook Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$990	$0.94	24d	1	0.63mi
942 Stewarts Creek Dr #8 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,055	$1.03	24d	1	0.70mi
111 Grande Oaks Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$1,645	$1.37	15d	46	1.07mi
1131 Capeharbor Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	14	1.13mi
3500 Carlson Bay Ct Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	15d	4	1.17mi
6445 Independence Pl Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$1,779	$1.61	15d	18	1.26mi
6510 Cissna Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,095	$1.00	15d	1	1.28mi
6517 Portsmouth Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1125	$1,250	$1.11	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 101-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,898
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$227
• After-tax cash flow: $2,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,834
• Household income: $62,249
• Rent vs Own: 52.6% rent · 47.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2511.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 25% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.20%
• Current HPI: 231.873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+194.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $125,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-02-22 Rental Removed $1,220 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-08 Listed for Rent $1,220 APPFOLIO
• 2022-03-18 Price Changed $1,120 RENT.
• 2019-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1986-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,898 · +38.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.