642 Central Ave · South Williamson, KY 41503

$69,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1985 0.36 ac lot $32/sqft · 36% below area Est $126k · 45% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice two bedroom home with large rooms and unique features such as the wooden beams and a spiral staircase. It has a lot of potential with part of the lot fenced and has an oversized 1 car carport. This home does need some repairs, schedule a showing it could be your dream home. Convenient Location to hospital and approx 15 min. from the Buffalo Mtn. Trail Head. {Note, this home is up against the hillside in the back. }

Key facts

• Oversized carport
• Wooden beams
• Spiral staircase

Tags

• WOODEN BEAMS
• SPIRAL STAIRCASE
• OVERSIZED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#193 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $590 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,790 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.02%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,594
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -45.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $15,692
• Equity at exit: $17,137

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $46,186
• Equity at exit: $18,409

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41503

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $747/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $657

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Very nice two bedroom home with large rooms and unique features such as the wooden beams and a spiral staircase. It has a lot of potential with part of the lot fenced and has an oversized 1 car carport. This home does need some repairs, schedule a showing it could be your dream home. Convenient Location to hospital and approx 15 min. from the Buffalo Mtn. Trail Head. {Note, this home is up against the hillside in the back. }

2. 2026-05-06
   price $69,000 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Very nice two bedroom home with large rooms and unique features such as the wooden beams and a spiral staircase. It has a lot of potential with part of the lot fenced and has an oversized 1 car carport. This home does need some repairs, schedule a showing it could be your dream home. Convenient Location to hospital and approx 15 min. from the Buffalo Mtn. Trail Head. {Note, this home is up against the hillside in the back. }

3. 2026-01-13
   listed $79,000 Active 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Very nice two bedroom home with large rooms and unique features such as the wooden beams and a spiral staircase. It has a lot of potential with part of the lot fenced and has an oversized 1 car carport. This home does need some repairs, schedule a showing it could be your dream home. Convenient Location to hospital and approx 15 min. from the Buffalo Mtn. Trail Head. {Note, this home is up against the hillside in the back. }

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$747
• − Insurance: −$1,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $2,950
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$708
• After-tax cash flow: $3,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — South Williamson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #9670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Williamson, KY
• City population: 301
• Population (ZIP): 301

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.85%
• Current HPI: 150.7112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $69,000 EKAR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $79,000 EKAR

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $747 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.