15130 Route 14 · Alba, PA 16947

$42,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 1911 0.48 ac lot $25/sqft · 81% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Traditional, 2-story located conveniently off of Route 14 between Canton and Troy. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, 0.48 acre lot. Property priced to sell and won't last long!

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1911

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,570 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Troy Area SD (rural): math 19% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #427 of 539 in PA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Bradford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($294 loan paydown + $894 appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Bradford County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,675 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.20%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,053
• List price: $42,500
• Delta: -80.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3639 Minnequa Main Rd	0.34mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,972 (+14%)	12mo	$215,000	$109	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $32,986
• Equity at exit: $17,002

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $78,268
• Equity at exit: $24,667

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16947

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $420

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $480	+0% $468	+5% $456	+10% $444
Rent	-10% $388	-5% $428	+0% $468	+5% $508	+10% $548
Rate	-1.0pp $489	-0.5pp $479	base $468	+0.5pp $457	+1.0pp $446

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $42,500 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,500 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,500 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,500 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,500 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,500 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $42,500 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,500 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $42,500 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $42,500 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,500 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $42,500
17. 2026-02-17
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$972
• − Management: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $5,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $4,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4223790
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,987
• Composite: 28.7/100
• National rank: #6690
• State rank: #427 of 539 in PA

Livability — Alba

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1570
• US rank: #20961

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alba, PA
• City population: 66
• Population (ZIP): 4,653

Population outlook (Bradford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,236 people
• By 2030: 54,660 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 49,502 · -13.5%
• By 2050: 44,277 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 33,420 · -41.6%
• By 2100: 22,919 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.9) · D 25.6% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -47.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.9 2020: R+44.9 2016: R+46.0 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Current HPI: 176.375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $42,500 PMAR
• 2026-02-17 Listed $49,900 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,095 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.