6447 Holiday Valley Rd Unit 505/507-3 · Ellicottville, NY 14731

$75,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 848 sqft · Condo · 425 Days on market

Built 2009 Excellent condition $88/sqft · 32% below area Est $110k · 32% under $223/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One bedroom deluxe layout style F gives you the option to use half of the unit and rent the other side. Fractional Ownership gives you 10-11 weeks at the Tamarack Club or about 1 week per month on a rotating basis. Ownership amenities include underground parking while lodging overnight, access to complimentary valet services, year 'round access to the heated indoor/outdoor pool, hot tubs, fitness center, sauna, private owner's lounge and private locker rooms. Renovations will begin on this floor in the spring or fall of 2026!

Key facts

• Underground parking
• Fitness center
• Sauna

Tags

• UNDERGROUND PARKING
• COMPLIMENTARY VALET SERVICES
• HEATED INDOOR OUTDOOR POOL
• HOT TUBS
• FITNESS CENTER
• SAUNA

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $75,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$110,295) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $75k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (26.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellicottville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 245 students, 38% FRL); Ellicottville Middle School High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 310 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 425 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,288 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 425 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,295
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -32.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-20,639
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-28,369
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14731

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$223
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $55,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-110	+0% $-136	+5% $-162	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-170	+0% $-136	+5% $-103	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-117	base $-136	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $223 · $2,676/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 425 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 424 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 422 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 421 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 420 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 419 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 417 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 416 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 413 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 412 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 411 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 410 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 407 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 406 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 405 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 404 DOM
17. 2025-04-22
    listed $75,000 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    One bedroom deluxe layout style F gives you the option to use half of the unit and rent the other side. Fractional Ownership gives you 10-11 weeks at the Tamarack Club or about 1 week per month on a rotating basis. Ownership amenities include underground parking while lodging overnight, access to complimentary valet services, year 'round access to the heated indoor/outdoor pool, hot tubs, fitness center, sauna, private owner's lounge and private locker rooms. Renovations will begin on this floor in the spring or fall of 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − HOA: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable loss: −$2,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$669
• After-tax cash flow: $-966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. Upcoming renovations and existing amenities make it a strong investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Renovations in 2026 — The renovations will enhance the property's appeal and value for both resale and rental.
• Both Upgraded amenities — The property offers a range of amenities that can attract both buyers and renters, increasing its value.
• Both Improved landscaping — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the property's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Renovations in 2026 — The renovations will enhance the property's appeal and value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Upgraded amenities — The property offers a range of amenities that can attract both buyers and renters, increasing its value. ↑
• Both Improved landscaping — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the property's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,198

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.11%
• Current HPI: 280.7168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-22 Listed $75,000 WNYREIS