31 Campigatta Holw · Van Lear, KY 41265

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1930 1.25 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

REDUCED!! Want to sell! Ready to sell! Quiet, serene, easily accessible. .. Lots remodeled and new - Brand new metal roof, 11 new windows, new wiring throughout, new plumbing to the meter, bathroom and utility rm remodeled this year. See Sellers Disclosure for extensive list

Key facts

• Metal roof
• New plumbing
• New wiring

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW WIRING
• NEW PLUMBING
• BATHROOM REMODELED
• UTILITY ROOM REMODELED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Patio; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Window coverings; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnson County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #103 of 165 in KY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Porter Elementary School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #434 of 676 statewide, top 69%, 412 students, 55% FRL); Johnson County Middle School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 475 students, 61% FRL); Johnson Central High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #200 of 254 statewide, top 79%, 955 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.05%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $4,277
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $25,960
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41265

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $344/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 278-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   price $80,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    price $100,000
18. 2026-02-19
    price $110,000
19. 2026-02-19
    listed $110,000 Active
20. 2025-11-05
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $344 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$344/yr (+$29/mo · 100.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$344
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$995
• − Management: −$995
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,093
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$502
• After-tax cash flow: $2,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson County
• NCES district ID: 2103060
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $34,508
• Composite: 25.49/100
• National rank: #7441
• State rank: #103 of 165 in KY

Livability — Van Lear

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Van Lear, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,114

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,330 people
• By 2030: 21,570 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 19,849 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 18,204 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 14,588 · -34.7%
• By 2100: 11,127 · -50.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.7) · D 14.0% · R 84.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -70.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.7 2020: R+67.1 2016: R+71.0 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.84%
• Current HPI: 236.5048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $100,000 EKAR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $110,000 EKAR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $110,000 EKAR
• 2025-11-05 Listed $120,000 EKAR

Property tax history

+62.9%/yr

Latest (2019): $344 · +1045.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.