623 S Layton Ave · Earlsboro, OK 74840

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2024 7,000 sqft lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the peace and privacy of small-town living without sacrificing modern comfort in this stunning, brand-new 2024 mobile home. Nestled on little under an acre of land, this property offers a rare opportunity to own a spacious, contemporary home with excellent amenities including city water and sewage. Step inside this light-filled residence to find beautiful luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring that flows seamlessly throughout the open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas – perfect for entertaining or quiet family time. The chef-friendly kitchen offers a connected space for cooking and gathering. Unwind in the generously sized master bedroom, complete with a large walk-in clos

Key facts

• New mobile home
• Modern comfort
• Sewage

Tags

• MODERN COMFORT
• NEW MOBILE HOME
• ACRE OF LAND
• CITY WATER
• SEWAGE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#81 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Earlsboro (rural): math 6% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #490 of 513 in OK (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Earlsboro Es (math 8% / reading 2%, grade F, #766 of 845 statewide, top 94%, 178 students, 0% FRL); Earlsboro Hs (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #361 of 447 statewide, top 94%, 85 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Pottawatomie County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.4% local appreciation)).
• Pottawatomie County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $51,049
• Equity at exit: $82,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $142,040
• Equity at exit: $159,836

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74840

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $835/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $912

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $160	+0% $127	+5% $95	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $85	+0% $127	+5% $170	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $157	base $127	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $115,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-04-02
    status Pending
12. 2026-02-19
    status Active
13. 2026-01-05
    price $115,000
14. 2025-12-04
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $835 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,035 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$835
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$91
• After-tax cash flow: $1,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Earlsboro
• NCES district ID: 4010500
• Math proficiency: 6% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,796
• Composite: 13.16/100
• National rank: #14513
• State rank: #490 of 513 in OK

Livability — Earlsboro

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #10182

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Earlsboro, OK
• Population (ZIP): 1,993

Population outlook (Pottawatomie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,622 people
• By 2030: 78,816 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 82,766 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 86,031 · +12.3%
• By 2075: 93,316 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 95,820 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Native American 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pottawatomie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.2% · R 72.7% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.1pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.39%
• Current HPI: 365.2182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $115,000 MLSOK
• 2025-12-04 Listed $125,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+45.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $835 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.