2105 Butternut Ln · Midland, TX 79705

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1954 8,364 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GOOD INVESTMENT PROPERTY. MUST HAVE $1,500 ERNEST MONEY WITH CASH OFFERS AND CLOSE AT W TX ABSTR IN MIDLAND. S OF SCHARBAUER DR. AND N OF E. GOLF COURSE RD.

Key facts

• 8,364 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 19 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 442 students, 68% FRL, charter); Abell J H (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,095 students, 46% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.60%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-12,829
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,024
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,262/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,710

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
416 Maple Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,750	$1.58	21d	1	0.53mi
1710 N Weatherford St Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1165	$1,950	$1.67	21d	1	0.71mi
1320 N Fairgrounds Rd Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,800	$2.43	13d	1	0.77mi
1320 N Fairgrounds Rd #706 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$3,500	$2.57	13d	1	0.77mi
3214 Carver St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,300	$1.79	44d	1	0.83mi
1212 E Wadley Ave Unit 1223 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	932	$1,138	$1.22	21d	1	0.84mi
930 Edwards St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,750	$1.50	13d	1	0.97mi
202 E Shandon Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$2,400	$1.95	21d	1	1.02mi
405 Humble Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$1,250	$1.43	44d	1	1.03mi
407 W Spruce Ave Unit A-1 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,600	$1.48	21d	1	1.15mi
410 W Pine Ave Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,850	$1.62	21d	1	1.16mi
3600 Edwards St Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,164	$2.21	13d	19	1.20mi
2301 N Pecos St Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1082	$1,612	$1.49	44d	2	1.20mi
2301 N Pecos St Midland, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$1,562	$1.48	21d	3	1.20mi
1104 N Carrizo St Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	44d	1	1.35mi
3700 N Edwards St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,911	$2.00	13d	18	1.35mi
1102 N Carrizo St Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	44d	1	1.35mi
711 W Dormard Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,150	$1.51	44d	1	1.38mi
1101 N Carrizo St Unit 6 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	915	$1,500	$1.64	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $130,000 Active
4. 2025-09-16
   price $125,000
5. 2025-08-28
   price $130,000
6. 2025-07-14
   price $132,000
7. 2025-06-15
   price $135,000
8. 2025-05-27
   price $140,000
9. 2025-05-13
   price $149,500
10. 2025-04-22
    price $155,000
11. 2025-04-04
    price $160,000
12. 2008-10-01
    soldstatus
13. 2008-07-11
    soldstatus
14. 2008-07-10
    soldstatus
15. 2003-11-17
    soldstatus
16. 2003-11-14
    soldstatus 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    GOOD INVESTMENT PROPERTY. MUST HAVE $1,500 ERNEST MONEY WITH CASH OFFERS AND CLOSE AT W TX ABSTR IN MIDLAND. S OF SCHARBAUER DR. AND N OF E. GOLF COURSE RD.

17. 2003-10-23
    listed $19,900 156-char remark

    Show marketing remark (156 chars)

    GOOD INVESTMENT PROPERTY. MUST HAVE $1,500 ERNEST MONEY WITH CASH OFFERS AND CLOSE AT W TX ABSTR IN MIDLAND. S OF SCHARBAUER DR. AND N OF E. GOLF COURSE RD.

18. 2002-04-26
    soldstatus
19. 2002-02-09
    listed $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,262 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$117/yr (+$10/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,262
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$24
• After-tax cash flow: $1,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+381.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-03-19 Listed $130,000 PBBOR
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $125,000 PBBOR
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $130,000 PBBOR
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $132,000 PBBOR
• 2025-06-15 Price Changed $135,000 PBBOR
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $140,000 PBBOR
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $149,500 PBBOR
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $155,000 PBBOR
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $160,000 PBBOR
• 2008-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-14 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2003-10-23 Listed $19,900 ODMLS
• 2002-04-26 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2002-02-09 Listed $27,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,262 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.