124 Ellsworth Ave · Fleischmanns, NY 12430

$240,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,293 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $274k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

House on 1/2 acre lot. Estate sale. . needs work. New roof 8/25 perfect for contractors who need space. Property is currently in cleanup phase. Has a huge 4 bay garage with lift. Numerous storage sheds, wood shed, Coal storage. 3 out buildings could be used for anything. Well water. . home needs renovation. Has a Happy Thought wood/coal burning stove in kitchen. Wood stove in living room. Pantry, Laundry Room. Building needs to be hooked into village sewer system. Plenty of parking. . Cash Buyers or renovation loan. . not a first time buyer unless cash. . Shown by appointment only. .

Key facts

• Wood shed
• Coal storage
• 1/2 acre lot

Tags

• 1/2 ACRE LOT
• HUGE 4 BAY GARAGE
• NUMEROUS STORAGE SHEDS
• WOOD SHED
• COAL STORAGE
• 3 OUT BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-874/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#834 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Margaretville Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #734 of 755 in NY (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $195,000 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,116
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
99 Schneider Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,188 (-8%)	6mo	$200,000	$168	63
164 Schneider Ave	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+0%)	22mo	$275,000	$212	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $312
• Equity at exit: $82,425

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $39,941
• Equity at exit: $109,917

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12430

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,057/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,042

Max offer price $227,127

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-5	+0% $-73	+5% $-141	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-150	+0% $-73	+5% $4	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-12	base $-73	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Old Route 28 Apt 2 Fleischmanns, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	44d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 590-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $240,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,057 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,557 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,057
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,027
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,206
• After-tax cash flow: $332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Margaretville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618510
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,369
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #12675
• State rank: #734 of 755 in NY

Livability — Fleischmanns

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #834
• US rank: #16163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fleischmanns, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,232

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.04%
• Current HPI: 402.0144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $240,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,057 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.