17852 Lionheart Rd · Deerwood, TX 77306

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Land · 99 Days on market

Built 2025 6,500 sqft lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $234k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Microwave oven
• Dishwasher

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MICROWAVE OVEN
• DISHWASHER
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• CEILING FANS
• GARAGE DOOR OPENER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $185,745 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,528
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -3.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,839
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,728
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $169	+0% $105	+5% $-215	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $32	+0% $105	+5% $178	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $162	base $105	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	0.51mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	9d	1	1.09mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	1.09mi
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $224,900 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $224,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $224,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-03-20
   price $224,900 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

8. 2026-02-26
   listed $227,900 Active 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

9. 2026-02-26
   historical

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   The attractive Aspen plan centers around a large open kitchen, complete with an island and a built-in pantry. An airy great room—ideal for relaxing and entertaining—is steps away, as is a dining area. There are three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower.

10. 2025-11-21
    price $234,900
11. 2025-07-24
    price $239,900
12. 2025-04-16
    listed $253,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,116 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,646/yr (+$304/mo · 775.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$2,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$627
• After-tax cash flow: $1,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $227,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $253,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.