466 Stagecoach Rd · Roosevelt, NJ 08510

$249,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 466 Stagecoach Road, a charming home nestled in the peaceful countryside of Millstone Township. This cozy single-family home offers the perfect blend of privacy, simplicity, and opportunity in one of Monmouth County's most desirable rural communities. This 1-bedroom, 1-bath home provides an ideal option for buyers seeking a low-maintenance residence, weekend retreat, or investment property. Inside, you'll find a cozy living area, a bright kitchen with appliances included, and a comfortable bedroom with easy access to the full bathroom. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing opportunity, rental investment, or weekend escape, this unique property offers exceptional v

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Comfortable bedroom
• Cozy living area

Tags

• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• COZY LIVING AREA
• COMFORTABLE BEDROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Cooling with multiple units
• Interior features: Includes stove and refrigerator; Crawl space basement; Sunroom
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.3% in Roosevelt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#344 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Millstone Township School District (rural): math 33% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #137 of 472 in NJ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $250k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,249 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.93%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-15,278
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $19,173
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08510

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,598 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,092/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $249,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $467	+0% $396	+5% $325	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $294	+0% $396	+5% $499	+10% $601
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $460	base $396	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $249,999 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,092 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,158 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,067/yr (+$172/mo · 98.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,092
• − Insurance: −$2,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,494
• − Management: −$2,494
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$185
• After-tax cash flow: $4,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millstone Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3410230
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $132,716
• Composite: 44.81/100
• National rank: #2739
• State rank: #137 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Roosevelt

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #11170

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,059
• Population (ZIP): 5,383

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 17% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 8% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.35%
• Current HPI: 270.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+455.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $249,999 MOMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $249,999 MOMLS
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $269,999 MOMLS
• 2024-04-04 Rental Removed $2,100 MOMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed for Rent $2,100 MOMLS
• 2022-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-10 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2022-05-04 Listed $185,000 MOMLS
• 2019-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-02 Sold (MLS) $128,000 MOMLS
• 2019-10-22 Pending — MOMLS
• 2019-09-30 Listed $134,900 MOMLS
• 2019-03-02 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2018-08-30 Listed $169,900 MOMLS
• 2013-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-22 Listed $185,000 MOMLS
• 2011-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,100 Public Records
• 2011-08-19 Sold (MLS) $60,100 MOMLS
• 2011-06-07 Listed $45,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,092 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.