200 W Robberson St · Willard, MO 65781

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1897 0.39 ac lot $138/sqft · 28% below area Est $180k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfort, convenience, and value in this charming 2-bedroom home located in the heart of Willard, just 2 blocks from Main Street. Situated on a generously sized lot, this property offers plenty of space for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, abundant natural light, and practical updates that make everyday living easy and affordable. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and flows nicely into the main living area, creating a welcoming atmosphere for relaxing or entertaining. Both bedrooms are comfortably sized, and the home offers great potential for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a solid opportunity in a convenient location. With its central location, large yard, and budget-friendly appeal, this home is a rare find in Willard. Enjoy small-town living with quick access to local shops, schools, and amenities--all just a short distance from your doorstep. Don't miss your chance to own an affordable home with room to grow!

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Central location
• Large yard

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• CENTRAL LOCATION
• LARGE YARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.5% in Willard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#79 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $130k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.40%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,947
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -27.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Dorcas Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+2%)	2mo	$185,000	$193	74
200 E Robberson St	0.16mi	2/1.0	993 (+5%)	15mo	$115,000	$116	72
205 Kime St	0.29mi	2/1.0	910 (-4%)	23mo	$145,000	$159	61
301 E New Melville Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+7%)	17mo	$160,000	$159	40
119 W New Melville Rd	0.60mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,031 (+9%)	13mo	$189,900	$184	39
102 Arrowhead Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,085 (+15%)	2mo	$215,000	$198	36
103 Arrowhead Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,085 (+15%)	1mo	$215,000	$198	35
100 N Arrowhead Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,085 (+15%)	21mo	$185,000	$171	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,854
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $33,152
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65781

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,483 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $722/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $449	-5% $413	+0% $376	+5% $339	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $317	+0% $376	+5% $435	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $441	-0.5pp $409	base $376	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $129,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    statusdays on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-12
    status Pending 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    Discover comfort, convenience, and value in this charming 2-bedroom home located in the heart of Willard, just 2 blocks from Main Street. Situated on a generously sized lot, this property offers plenty of space for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, abundant natural light, and practical updates that make everyday living easy and affordable. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and flows nicely into the main living area, creating a welcoming atmosphere for relaxing or entertaining. Both bedrooms are comfortably sized, and the home offers great potential for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a solid opportunity in a convenient location. With its central location, large yard, and budget-friendly appeal, this home is a rare find in Willard. Enjoy small-town living with quick access to local shops, schools, and amenities--all just a short distance from your doorstep. Don't miss your chance to own an affordable home with room to grow!

12. 2026-04-16
    listed $139,900 Active 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    Discover comfort, convenience, and value in this charming 2-bedroom home located in the heart of Willard, just 2 blocks from Main Street. Situated on a generously sized lot, this property offers plenty of space for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, abundant natural light, and practical updates that make everyday living easy and affordable. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and flows nicely into the main living area, creating a welcoming atmosphere for relaxing or entertaining. Both bedrooms are comfortably sized, and the home offers great potential for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a solid opportunity in a convenient location. With its central location, large yard, and budget-friendly appeal, this home is a rare find in Willard. Enjoy small-town living with quick access to local shops, schools, and amenities--all just a short distance from your doorstep. Don't miss your chance to own an affordable home with room to grow!

13. 2019-07-08
    soldstatus $68,850
14. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Adorable completely remodeled home conveniently located in the heart of Willard! This house is larger than it appears with a formal dining room or second living area and it has a great sized yard on almost . 4 acres! Qualifies for USDA financing with $0 down! Come see this one for yourself!!!

15. 2018-05-02
    listed $70,000 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Adorable completely remodeled home conveniently located in the heart of Willard! This house is larger than it appears with a formal dining room or second living area and it has a great sized yard on almost . 4 acres! Qualifies for USDA financing with $0 down! Come see this one for yourself!!!

16. 2014-04-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$538/yr (+$45/mo · 74.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$722
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,423
• − Management: −$1,423
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $3,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willard R-II
• NCES district ID: 2932010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,200
• Composite: 39.04/100
• National rank: #4063
• State rank: #83 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willard

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #5258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willard, MO
• Population (ZIP): 9,160

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.06%
• Current HPI: 214.9498
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-16 Listed $139,900 SOMO
• 2019-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $68,850 Public Records
• 2018-06-08 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-05-02 Listed $70,000 SOMO
• 2014-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $722 · +47.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.