4157 Shoals Ln · South Fulton, GA 30291

$254,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,821 sqft · Townhouse public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2020 1,568 sqft lot $140/sqft · at area comps Est $258k · at est. $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Imagine living in this GATED community of Heritage Walk. This End Unit Two-Story Townhome features 4 bdrms and 3 full baths with one of the bedrooms and baths being on the main level. Entertain your heart out with this open concept floor plan featuring wide open foyer, open kitchen with center island facing family area and separate breakfast area. Kitchen features beau tiful espresso cabinets, granite countertops, subway ti le back splash, recessed can lights, stainless microwave, stove, and dishwasher. Luxury Vinyl flooring on en tire first floor. Blinds throughout. Upstairs owners suite with double vanity sinks, separate garden tub and shower with walk in closet. Conveniently located to major interstates, Hartsfield Jackson airport and down town Atlanta.

Key facts

• Gated community
• End unit
• Espresso cabinets

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• END UNIT
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CENTER ISLAND
• ESPRESSO CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-374/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in South Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,030/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1778% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $255k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,000 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,432
• List price: $254,999
• Delta: -1.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4133 Shoals Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,821 (0%)	13mo	$255,000	$140	79
4193 Shoals Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,812 (-0%)	15mo	$255,000	$141	76
4169 Shoals Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,812 (-0%)	20mo	$264,433	$146	73
4143 Shoals Pt	0.08mi	3/3.0	1,565 (-14%)	21mo	$260,000	$166	51
6148 Oakley Rd #23	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-12%)	4mo	$220,000	$138	49
6302 Mallory Rdg #2	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,580 (-13%)	8mo	$206,000	$130	47
6302 Mallory Rdg	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,580 (-13%)	8mo	$206,000	$130	47
5095 Oakley Commons Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,550 (-15%)	16mo	$214,900	$139	34
6076 Oakley Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,570 (-14%)	24mo	$247,000	$157	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $135,227
• Equity at exit: $229,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $396,503
• Equity at exit: $495,407

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30291

• Home prices YoY: 11.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,128/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $249,498

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4128 Flat Trl Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,700	$1.17	43d	1	0.08mi
3855 Shenfield Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1626	$1,895	$1.17	43d	1	0.14mi
3859 Shenfield Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,000	$1.08	5d	1	0.15mi
4014 Carisbrook Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,295	$1.28	24d	1	0.19mi
4014 Carisbrook Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,195	$1.22	5d	1	0.19mi
4014 Carisbrook Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,295	$1.28	21d	1	0.19mi
6225 Shenfield Ln Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1821	$2,000	$1.10	43d	1	0.20mi
3791 Shenfield Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,086	$1.17	10d	1	0.23mi
6150 Mallory Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,695	$1.01	11d	1	0.26mi
6596 Woodwell Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,215	$1.23	12d	1	0.28mi
4312 Smithgall Ct Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1433	$2,000	$1.40	18d	1	0.42mi
6085 Mallory Rdg #32 Union City, GA	3.0	3.5	1540	$2,300	$1.49	43d	1	0.48mi
3285 Oakley Pl Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	43d	1	0.49mi
6350 Oakley Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.0–2.5	1472	$1,796	$1.22	1d	4	0.52mi
5150 Oakley Commons Blvd Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1375	$1,675	$1.22	24d	1	0.54mi
6425 Oakley Rd Union City, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,502	$1.45	4d	18	0.57mi
5400 Oakley Commons Blvd Union City, GA	2.0	2.0	1258	$1,257	$1.00	43d	1	0.73mi
4500 Shannon Blvd Unit 7A Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	2205	$1,750	$0.79	24d	1	0.78mi
4500 Shannon Blvd Unit 7 Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,750	$1.16	4d	1	0.78mi
4500 Shannon Blvd Unit 7A Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	2205	$2,000	$0.91	43d	1	0.78mi
4659 Shannon Ct Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	2030	$1,945	$0.96	43d	1	0.92mi
4701 Flat Shoals Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.5–3.0	1600	$1,775	$1.11	2d	1	1.01mi
4050 Morgan Rd Union City, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,750	$1.77	5d	21	1.05mi
3550 Morning Creek Dr Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,730	$1.24	12d	1	1.12mi
3457 Sumersbe Ct Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,300	$1.28	5d	1	1.16mi
5825 Vernier Dr Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,615	$1.20	24d	1	1.18mi
5825 Vernier Dr Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,615	$1.20	20d	1	1.18mi
5825 Vernier Dr Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,615	$1.20	43d	1	1.18mi
5825 Vernier Dr Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,615	$1.20	5d	1	1.18mi
5645 Morning Creek Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,565	$0.96	43d	1	1.23mi
3695 Morning Creek Dr Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,100	$1.41	43d	1	1.25mi
6770 Buffington Rd Union City, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,699	$1.79	1d	24	1.27mi
5885 Sable Chase Ln Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	2160	$2,100	$0.97	20d	1	1.29mi
5612 Feldwood Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,895	$0.90	5d	1	1.30mi
420 Buffington Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	2118	$2,050	$0.97	20d	1	1.37mi
3477 Carriage Chase Rd Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	24d	1	1.38mi
3550 Devon Chase Rd Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.0	2274	$2,200	$0.97	24d	1	1.44mi
3650 Creekview Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.5	1225	$1,689	$1.38	12d	1	1.44mi
3524 Devon Chase Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1974	$1,840	$0.93	24d	1	1.46mi
5205 Alexander St Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,681	$1.27	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,999 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,999 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,999 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,999 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,999 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,999 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,999 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,999 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $254,999 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,999 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,999 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,999 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-03-14
    listed $254,999 New 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Imagine living in this GATED community of Heritage Walk. This End Unit Two-Story Townhome features 4 bdrms and 3 full baths with one of the bedrooms and baths being on the main level. Entertain your heart out with this open concept floor plan featuring wide open foyer, open kitchen with center island facing family area and separate breakfast area. Kitchen features beautiful espresso cabinets, granite countertops, subway tile back splash, recessed can lights, stainless microwave, stove, and dishwasher. Luxury Vinyl flooring on entire first floor. Blinds throughout. Upstairs owners suite with double vanity sinks, separate garden tub and shower with walk in closet. Conveniently located to major interstates, Hartsfield Jackson airport and down town Atlanta.

14. 2026-03-14
    listed $254,999 Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Imagine living in this GATED community of Heritage Walk. This End Unit Two-Story Townhome features 4 bdrms and 3 full baths with one of the bedrooms and baths being on the main level. Entertain your heart out with this open concept floor plan featuring wide open foyer, open kitchen with center island facing family area and separate breakfast area. Kitchen features beautiful espresso cabinets, granite countertops, subway tile back splash, recessed can lights, stainless microwave, stove, and dishwasher. Luxury Vinyl flooring on entire first floor. Blinds throughout. Upstairs owners suite with double vanity sinks, separate garden tub and shower with walk in closet. Conveniently located to major interstates, Hartsfield Jackson airport and down town Atlanta.

15. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $90,000
16. 2011-01-04
    soldstatus $25,000
17. 2010-09-14
    soldstatus $958,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,128 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,346 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$218/yr (+$18/mo · 10.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,128
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — South Fulton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Fulton, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 127,674
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,130
• Household income: $48,184
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1778.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.98%
• Current HPI: 239.3471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-73.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $254,999 FMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $254,999 GAMLS
• 2019-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $958,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,128 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.