17218 W Smokey Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$359,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 2004 5,175 sqft lot $242/sqft · 10% below area Est $399k · 10% under $97/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Surprise Farms! Conveniently located near gyms, grocery stores, and everyday essentials, this home also offers easy access to shopping and dining at The Village at Prasada--just 10 minutes away! Inside, you'll love the open floor plan enhanced by vaulted ceilings and bamboo wood flooring throughout the main living areas. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms and a private primary suite. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with turf and pavers--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying Arizona living with ease. With a prime location close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home is one you dont want to miss!

Key facts

• 5,175 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,059 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,237
• List price: $359,999
• Delta: -9.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17160 W Young St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,485 (0%)	3mo	$372,000	$251	85
17085 W Young St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-2%)	1mo	$340,000	$234	77
16988 W Windermere Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-3%)	3mo	$395,000	$273	67
17752 W Tasha Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+2%)	2mo	$395,000	$262	60
16926 W Nottingham Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-4%)	1mo	$340,000	$238	59
17611 W Ingleside Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,519 (+2%)	1mo	$359,900	$237	57
16871 W Windermere Way	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,598 (+8%)	1mo	$355,000	$222	55
17615 W Babbitt Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-6%)	2mo	$350,000	$250	52
17845 W Arizona Dr	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,528 (+3%)	1mo	$245,000	$160	50
17802 N 170th Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,681 (+13%)	2mo	$395,000	$235	46
17632 W Arcadia Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-8%)	2mo	$305,000	$224	42
17145 W Ironwood St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+12%)	1mo	$389,000	$233	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-37,065
• Equity at exit: $109,679

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-37,925
• Equity at exit: $136,020

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,341 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,166/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $292,350

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-179	-5% $-281	+0% $-383	+5% $-485	+10% $-587
Rent	-10% $-568	-5% $-475	+0% $-383	+5% $-290	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-202	-0.5pp $-291	base $-383	+0.5pp $-476	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17210 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1746	$2,900	$1.66	45d	1	0.03mi
17057 W Manchester Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,695	$1.01	12d	1	0.37mi
16166 N 170th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,775	$1.30	25d	1	0.51mi
17701 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,949	$2.17	0d	25	0.51mi
15927 N 171st Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,200	$1.92	45d	1	0.61mi
16829 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	25d	1	0.62mi
16926 W Nottingham Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,850	$1.29	3d	1	0.64mi
17785 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,068	$2.02	0d	41	0.73mi
17009 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,862	$1.31	45d	1	0.74mi
17714 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,485	$1.06	19d	1	0.77mi
17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,185	$1.24	3d	1	0.78mi
17647 N 167th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1789	$2,035	$1.14	14d	1	0.78mi
16536 W Rock Springs Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$1,995	$1.41	12d	1	0.81mi
17794 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,800	$1.28	45d	1	0.82mi
17460 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,200	$1.97	45d	1	0.82mi
17190 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,699	$1.13	25d	1	0.82mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	0d	1	0.84mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	19d	1	0.84mi
16559 W Post Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,789	$1.12	23d	1	0.89mi
17200 W Bell Rd #1185 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	45d	1	0.99mi
17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1767	$3,500	$1.98	45d	1	1.09mi
18651 N Salerno Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,650	$1.40	45d	1	1.12mi
17218 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,800	$1.20	12d	1	1.13mi
16344 W Crater Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1495	$3,200	$2.14	45d	1	1.14mi
18277 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1870	$3,500	$1.87	45d	1	1.14mi
18027 W Udall Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1439	$1,950	$1.36	19d	1	1.15mi
18050 W Legend Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1441	$4,500	$3.12	45d	1	1.21mi
17692 N Coconino Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1728	$2,700	$1.56	45d	1	1.22mi
14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,099	$1.24	6d	1	1.22mi
17862 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,600	$1.47	19d	1	1.25mi
16523 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,175	$1.34	3d	1	1.27mi
18100 N Coconino Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1555	$1,800	$1.16	19d	1	1.31mi
16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,875	$1.40	45d	1	1.32mi
16755 N Sarival Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,255	$2.22	0d	1	1.35mi
17923 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,900	$1.18	45d	1	1.35mi
18113 W Buena Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1401	$1,950	$1.39	25d	1	1.37mi
16212 N 162nd Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,889	$1.44	6d	1	1.38mi
14916 N 177th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,849	$1.42	5d	1	1.38mi
18184 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,895	$1.13	25d	1	1.39mi
17724 W Woodrow Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,825	$1.41	0d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,999 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,999 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,999 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,999 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,999 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,999 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,999 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,999 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $359,999 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $359,999 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,999 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,999 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,999 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,999 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $359,999 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Surprise Farms! Conveniently located near gyms, grocery stores, and everyday essentials, this home also offers easy access to shopping and dining at The Village at Prasada--just 10 minutes away! Inside, you'll love the open floor plan enhanced by vaulted ceilings and bamboo wood flooring throughout the main living areas. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms and a private primary suite. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with turf and pavers--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying Arizona living with ease. With a prime location close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home is one you dont want to miss!

16. 2026-03-20
    price $360,000 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Surprise Farms! Conveniently located near gyms, grocery stores, and everyday essentials, this home also offers easy access to shopping and dining at The Village at Prasada--just 10 minutes away! Inside, you'll love the open floor plan enhanced by vaulted ceilings and bamboo wood flooring throughout the main living areas. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms and a private primary suite. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with turf and pavers--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying Arizona living with ease. With a prime location close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home is one you dont want to miss!

17. 2026-03-17
    price $365,000 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Surprise Farms! Conveniently located near gyms, grocery stores, and everyday essentials, this home also offers easy access to shopping and dining at The Village at Prasada--just 10 minutes away! Inside, you'll love the open floor plan enhanced by vaulted ceilings and bamboo wood flooring throughout the main living areas. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms and a private primary suite. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with turf and pavers--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying Arizona living with ease. With a prime location close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home is one you dont want to miss!

18. 2026-03-09
    price $369,800 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Surprise Farms! Conveniently located near gyms, grocery stores, and everyday essentials, this home also offers easy access to shopping and dining at The Village at Prasada--just 10 minutes away! Inside, you'll love the open floor plan enhanced by vaulted ceilings and bamboo wood flooring throughout the main living areas. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms and a private primary suite. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with turf and pavers--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying Arizona living with ease. With a prime location close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home is one you dont want to miss!

19. 2026-03-04
    price $369,900 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Surprise Farms! Conveniently located near gyms, grocery stores, and everyday essentials, this home also offers easy access to shopping and dining at The Village at Prasada--just 10 minutes away! Inside, you'll love the open floor plan enhanced by vaulted ceilings and bamboo wood flooring throughout the main living areas. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms and a private primary suite. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with turf and pavers--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying Arizona living with ease. With a prime location close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home is one you dont want to miss!

20. 2026-02-25
    price $374,900 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Surprise Farms! Conveniently located near gyms, grocery stores, and everyday essentials, this home also offers easy access to shopping and dining at The Village at Prasada--just 10 minutes away! Inside, you'll love the open floor plan enhanced by vaulted ceilings and bamboo wood flooring throughout the main living areas. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms and a private primary suite. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with turf and pavers--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying Arizona living with ease. With a prime location close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home is one you dont want to miss!

21. 2026-02-18
    listed $385,000 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Check out this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Surprise Farms! Conveniently located near gyms, grocery stores, and everyday essentials, this home also offers easy access to shopping and dining at The Village at Prasada--just 10 minutes away! Inside, you'll love the open floor plan enhanced by vaulted ceilings and bamboo wood flooring throughout the main living areas. The modern kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious layout includes comfortable bedrooms and a private primary suite. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard with turf and pavers--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying Arizona living with ease. With a prime location close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, this home is one you dont want to miss!

22. 2023-08-01
    soldstatus $395,000 Closed 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (973 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 3 bed, 2 bath property in the lovely neighborhood of Surprise Farms is now on the market! The perfectly flowing open layout features chic chandeliers, soothing paint, engineered bamboo wood flooring, & soaring vaulted ceilings, creating an airy & sophisticated ambiance. Impeccable kitchen is fully equipped w/white shaker cabinets, grey subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters, a pantry, & an island w/a breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in this cozy main suite showcasing an ensuite w/dual sinks & a walk-in closet. All bedrooms include soft carpeting for warmth & comfort underfoot. Continue to the serene backyard providing a relaxing covered patio, pavers, & artificial turf! Another upgrade in the garage are the epoxy floors. Close by are restaurants such as Oreganos, Habit Burger, Babbo's Italian Eatery, Bonfire Craft Kitchen, and so many more. Don't miss this amazing chance!

23. 2023-08-01
    soldstatus $395,000

    Show marketing remark (973 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 3 bed, 2 bath property in the lovely neighborhood of Surprise Farms is now on the market! The perfectly flowing open layout features chic chandeliers, soothing paint, engineered bamboo wood flooring, & soaring vaulted ceilings, creating an airy & sophisticated ambiance. Impeccable kitchen is fully equipped w/white shaker cabinets, grey subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters, a pantry, & an island w/a breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in this cozy main suite showcasing an ensuite w/dual sinks & a walk-in closet. All bedrooms include soft carpeting for warmth & comfort underfoot. Continue to the serene backyard providing a relaxing covered patio, pavers, & artificial turf! Another upgrade in the garage are the epoxy floors. Close by are restaurants such as Oreganos, Habit Burger, Babbo's Italian Eatery, Bonfire Craft Kitchen, and so many more. Don't miss this amazing chance!

24. 2023-07-22
    status Pending 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (973 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 3 bed, 2 bath property in the lovely neighborhood of Surprise Farms is now on the market! The perfectly flowing open layout features chic chandeliers, soothing paint, engineered bamboo wood flooring, & soaring vaulted ceilings, creating an airy & sophisticated ambiance. Impeccable kitchen is fully equipped w/white shaker cabinets, grey subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters, a pantry, & an island w/a breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in this cozy main suite showcasing an ensuite w/dual sinks & a walk-in closet. All bedrooms include soft carpeting for warmth & comfort underfoot. Continue to the serene backyard providing a relaxing covered patio, pavers, & artificial turf! Another upgrade in the garage are the epoxy floors. Close by are restaurants such as Oreganos, Habit Burger, Babbo's Italian Eatery, Bonfire Craft Kitchen, and so many more. Don't miss this amazing chance!

25. 2023-07-04
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (973 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 3 bed, 2 bath property in the lovely neighborhood of Surprise Farms is now on the market! The perfectly flowing open layout features chic chandeliers, soothing paint, engineered bamboo wood flooring, & soaring vaulted ceilings, creating an airy & sophisticated ambiance. Impeccable kitchen is fully equipped w/white shaker cabinets, grey subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters, a pantry, & an island w/a breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in this cozy main suite showcasing an ensuite w/dual sinks & a walk-in closet. All bedrooms include soft carpeting for warmth & comfort underfoot. Continue to the serene backyard providing a relaxing covered patio, pavers, & artificial turf! Another upgrade in the garage are the epoxy floors. Close by are restaurants such as Oreganos, Habit Burger, Babbo's Italian Eatery, Bonfire Craft Kitchen, and so many more. Don't miss this amazing chance!

26. 2023-06-29
    listed $390,000 Active 973-char remark

    Show marketing remark (973 chars)

    Welcome home! This charming 3 bed, 2 bath property in the lovely neighborhood of Surprise Farms is now on the market! The perfectly flowing open layout features chic chandeliers, soothing paint, engineered bamboo wood flooring, & soaring vaulted ceilings, creating an airy & sophisticated ambiance. Impeccable kitchen is fully equipped w/white shaker cabinets, grey subway tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, quartz counters, a pantry, & an island w/a breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in this cozy main suite showcasing an ensuite w/dual sinks & a walk-in closet. All bedrooms include soft carpeting for warmth & comfort underfoot. Continue to the serene backyard providing a relaxing covered patio, pavers, & artificial turf! Another upgrade in the garage are the epoxy floors. Close by are restaurants such as Oreganos, Habit Burger, Babbo's Italian Eatery, Bonfire Craft Kitchen, and so many more. Don't miss this amazing chance!

27. 2021-03-30
    soldstatus $317,000 Closed
28. 2021-03-30
    soldstatus $317,000
29. 2021-03-10
    status Pending
30. 2021-02-25
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
31. 2021-02-23
    listed $310,000 Active
32. 2016-07-15
    soldstatus $158,500
33. 2011-01-12
    historical
34. 2011-01-11
    soldstatus $73,000 Closed
35. 2011-01-11
    soldstatus $73,000
36. 2010-12-28
    status Pending
37. 2010-12-10
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
38. 2010-11-23
    price $74,000
39. 2010-11-19
    price $74,500
40. 2010-11-10
    price $76,900
41. 2010-10-27
    price $77,000
42. 2010-09-03
    price $84,000
43. 2010-08-25
    price $84,900
44. 2010-08-18
    price $85,000
45. 2010-08-07
    price $89,500
46. 2010-05-25
    price $90,000
47. 2010-05-05
    listed $95,000 Active
48. 2003-03-18
    soldstatus $2,072,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,166 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,210/yr (+$101/mo · 103.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,166
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$11,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,682
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-82.6% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $359,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $369,800 ARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $369,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $374,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-01 Sold (MLS) $395,000 ARMLS
• 2023-07-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-07-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-06-29 Listed $390,000 ARMLS
• 2021-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $317,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-30 Sold (MLS) $317,000 ARMLS
• 2021-03-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-02-25 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-02-23 Listed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2016-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $158,500 Public Records
• 2011-01-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-11 Sold (MLS) $73,000 ARMLS
• 2010-12-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-12-10 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2010-11-23 Price Changed $74,000 ARMLS
• 2010-11-19 Price Changed $74,500 ARMLS
• 2010-11-10 Price Changed $76,900 ARMLS
• 2010-10-27 Price Changed $77,000 ARMLS
• 2010-09-03 Price Changed $84,000 ARMLS
• 2010-08-25 Price Changed $84,900 ARMLS
• 2010-08-18 Price Changed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2010-08-07 Price Changed $89,500 ARMLS
• 2010-05-25 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2010-05-05 Listed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2003-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $2,072,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,166 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.