9466 Midway St · Spring Hill, FL 34608

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1976 8,391 sqft lot Est $202k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

active with contract - Convenient Location, Only about 10 minutes from the Beautiful Weeki Wachee River and Gulf of Mexico, Fenced Rear Yard, Treed Lot, 2018 Roof, 2007 HVAC, Neutral Tones, Tile / Laminate Flooring, Nice Kitchen Area with Updated Cabinets / Counter Space, Remaining Appliances, Updated Windows, Updated Bathrooms, Extra Attic Insulation for Reduced Utility Costs, Very Clean / Neat and Ready to Just Move In!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Near dining
• Near us19 shopping

Tags

• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS YARD
• NEAR US19 SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR MEDICAL FACILITIES
• NEAR MAJOR ROADWAYS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Single story (implied by property subtype)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Few trees on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dryer; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric range; Electric water heater; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($410/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Explorer K-8 (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 1,617 students, 69% FRL); Frank W. Springstead High School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 1,896 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $190k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,177 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9635 Century Dr	0.09mi	2/1.5	880 (0%)	9mo	$225,000	$256	86
9367 Midway St	0.20mi	2/1.0	880 (0%)	5mo	$170,000	$193	83
9420 Midway St	0.10mi	2/1.5	924 (+5%)	7mo	$190,000	$206	79
5100 Mentmore Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0	903 (+3%)	7mo	$245,000	$271	67
4581 Deltona Blvd	0.27mi	2/1.5	943 (+7%)	11mo	$144,000	$153	65
9248 Chase St	0.55mi	2/1.0	864 (-2%)	5mo	$182,000	$211	63
9513 Lakeview Ct	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (+5%)	8mo	$158,000	$171	63
9384 Midway St	0.17mi	2/1.0	960 (+9%)	13mo	$219,900	$229	62
9430 Chase St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (+5%)	14mo	$110,000	$119	61
4336 Pallas Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	981 (+12%)	13mo	$293,000	$299	56
9326 Bay Dr	0.69mi	2/1.5	943 (+7%)	3mo	$222,500	$236	52
9238 Century Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (+5%)	13mo	$219,900	$238	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,187
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-43,787
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34608

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,300/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $88	+0% $34	+5% $-20	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-27	+0% $34	+5% $95	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $82	base $34	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4470 Cynthia Ln Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,400	$1.38	22d	1	0.50mi
4353 Azora Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	979	$1,650	$1.69	26d	1	0.51mi
4283 Azora Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,600	$1.44	26d	1	0.54mi
2634 Landover Blvd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,250	$1.22	19d	1	0.66mi
4400 Millwood Rd Unit E Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.5	864	$1,250	$1.45	26d	1	0.74mi
4225 Jason Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,300	$1.62	26d	1	0.78mi
4208 Jason Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,500	$1.45	26d	1	0.78mi
4243 Jason Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,300	$1.62	26d	1	0.79mi
4247 Jason Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	804	$1,300	$1.62	12d	1	0.80mi
4224 Portillo Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,462	$1.33	1d	2	0.85mi
10313 Walton St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,550	$1.55	19d	1	0.87mi
10315 Walton St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	19d	1	0.89mi
2789 Landover Blvd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	824	$1,300	$1.58	26d	1	0.93mi
10337 Usher St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	1009	$1,475	$1.46	26d	1	0.95mi
4253 Central Park Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,445	$1.31	3d	8	1.06mi
4028 Portillo Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,475	$1.43	4d	1	1.06mi
10322 Gracelyn DR Spring Hill, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1206	$1,975	$1.64	0d	42	1.07mi
3544 Portillo Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,275	$1.50	26d	1	1.24mi
3535 Portillo Rd Apt 56 Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	26d	1	1.26mi
10490 Chalmer St Apt 3 Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	26d	1	1.27mi
3535 Portillo Rd Unit 40 Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,379	$1.38	25d	1	1.28mi
3535 Portillo Rd Unit 40 Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,379	$1.38	23d	1	1.28mi
11201 Kangley Ln Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1105	$1,695	$1.53	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-03
   price $190,000
3. 2026-04-08
   status Active
4. 2026-03-08
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-21
   listed $195,000 Active
6. 2020-11-20
   soldstatus $126,000 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   active with contract - Convenient Location, Only about 10 minutes from the Beautiful Weeki Wachee River and Gulf of Mexico, Fenced Rear Yard, Treed Lot, 2018 Roof, 2007 HVAC, Neutral Tones, Tile / Laminate Flooring, Nice Kitchen Area with Updated Cabinets / Counter Space, Remaining Appliances, Updated Windows, Updated Bathrooms, Extra Attic Insulation for Reduced Utility Costs, Very Clean / Neat and Ready to Just Move In!

7. 2020-11-20
   soldstatus $126,000 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   active with contract - Convenient Location, Only about 10 minutes from the Beautiful Weeki Wachee River and Gulf of Mexico, Fenced Rear Yard, Treed Lot, 2018 Roof, 2007 HVAC, Neutral Tones, Tile / Laminate Flooring, Nice Kitchen Area with Updated Cabinets / Counter Space, Remaining Appliances, Updated Windows, Updated Bathrooms, Extra Attic Insulation for Reduced Utility Costs, Very Clean / Neat and Ready to Just Move In!

8. 2020-10-09
   listed $129,900 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   active with contract - Convenient Location, Only about 10 minutes from the Beautiful Weeki Wachee River and Gulf of Mexico, Fenced Rear Yard, Treed Lot, 2018 Roof, 2007 HVAC, Neutral Tones, Tile / Laminate Flooring, Nice Kitchen Area with Updated Cabinets / Counter Space, Remaining Appliances, Updated Windows, Updated Bathrooms, Extra Attic Insulation for Reduced Utility Costs, Very Clean / Neat and Ready to Just Move In!

9. 2020-10-09
   listed $129,900 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   active with contract - Convenient Location, Only about 10 minutes from the Beautiful Weeki Wachee River and Gulf of Mexico, Fenced Rear Yard, Treed Lot, 2018 Roof, 2007 HVAC, Neutral Tones, Tile / Laminate Flooring, Nice Kitchen Area with Updated Cabinets / Counter Space, Remaining Appliances, Updated Windows, Updated Bathrooms, Extra Attic Insulation for Reduced Utility Costs, Very Clean / Neat and Ready to Just Move In!

10. 2003-03-11
    soldstatus $53,500
11. 2003-03-10
    soldstatus $53,500
12. 2003-03-03
    listed $55,900
13. 1991-05-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,300
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$691
• After-tax cash flow: $1,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,658
• Household income: $64,345
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 647.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.94%
• Current HPI: 305.1933
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+533.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $190,000 HCAR
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — HCAR
• 2026-03-08 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-02-21 Listed $195,000 HCAR
• 2020-11-20 Sold (MLS) $126,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2020-11-20 Sold (MLS) $126,000 HCAR
• 2020-10-09 Listed $129,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2020-10-09 Listed $129,900 HCAR
• 2003-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records
• 2003-03-10 Sold (MLS) $53,500 HCAR
• 2003-03-03 Listed $55,900 HCAR
• 1991-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,300 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.