3862 W North Aire Pl · Casas Adobes, AZ 85741

$264,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,385 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1973 8,668 sqft lot $191/sqft · 21% below area Est $336k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely, well maintained home. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath split-level home is located in northwest Tucson on a large cul-de-sac lot with NO HOA! Open & spacious with eat in area. Large master bedroom, dual pane windows, new roof, solar water heater, reverse osmosis water filter and softener. Pebbletec on pool with easy care and RV parking!. Close to shopping and I10.

Key facts

• Pool
• Granite counters
• Corner lot

Tags

• SPLIT LEVEL CONTEMPORARY HOME
• POOL
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• CORNER LOT
• EXTRA CABINET STORAGE
• STORAGE IN THE GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - CR3
• HOA & community: Paved street and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (covered)
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected; Phone service connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Multi/split level; South-facing
• Construction: Block and siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Shed(s); Subdivided lot; Corner lot; North/South exposure; Paved road; City-maintained road; Paved street and sidewalks in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas pack heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Casas Adobes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#8 in AZ, #2,353 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: amenities D.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Butterfield Elementary School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #490 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 480 students, 56% FRL); Tortolita Middle School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #116 of 218 statewide, top 54%, 539 students, 45% FRL); Mountain View High School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 1,831 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,445 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,099
• List price: $264,000
• Delta: -21.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4011 W Gentle Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+1%)	3mo	$375,000	$268	82
3371 W Eunice St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+1%)	1mo	$295,000	$211	71
3343 W Marlene St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+1%)	1mo	$359,000	$257	66
3885 W Mars St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+9%)	4mo	$315,000	$209	65
3401 W Evening Star Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-3%)	3mo	$317,900	$236	60
8300 N Bayou Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-2%)	4mo	$299,900	$222	60
4080 W Magee Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+13%)	1mo	$325,000	$207	59
4471 W Rose Mist Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-6%)	2mo	$305,000	$233	55
3671 W Meadow Briar Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+12%)	3mo	$348,000	$224	53
7768 N Barque Pl	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,287 (-7%)	3mo	$290,000	$225	50
7877 N Rockwood Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+13%)	3mo	$330,000	$212	45
4331 W Placita De Christina	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,502 (+8%)	2mo	$150,000	$100	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-55,020
• Equity at exit: $39,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-69,701
• Equity at exit: $22,826

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85741

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,295/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $236,184

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-8	-5% $-83	+0% $-157	+5% $-232	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-234	+0% $-157	+5% $-81	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-90	base $-157	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3627 W Suffield Ln Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1282	$1,900	$1.48	5d	1	0.32mi
3505 W Alana Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	4d	1	0.40mi
8064 N Bayou Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,500	$1.54	5d	1	0.48mi
7490 N Thornwood Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.51mi
7800 N Nicole Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,850	$1.24	45d	1	0.56mi
4313 W Bunk House Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	1870	$1,975	$1.06	45d	1	0.59mi
3812 W Goshen Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$1,925	$1.11	45d	2	0.63mi
3780 W Goshen Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1735	$1,925	$1.11	45d	1	0.65mi
7290 N Oldfather Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1260	$2,025	$1.61	3d	9	0.67mi
7290 N Oldfather Rd Unit 404 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1321	$1,825	$1.38	23d	1	0.68mi
7290 N Oldfather Rd Unit 101 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1276	$1,699	$1.33	5d	1	0.70mi
7290 N Oldfather Rd Unit 702 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,925	$1.60	19d	1	0.70mi
3869 W Cortaro Farms Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,630	$2.04	5d	1	0.70mi
3415 W Simone St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,925	$1.36	45d	1	0.73mi
8224 N Camino de la Viola Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,095	$1.16	45d	1	0.74mi
3534 W Goshen Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.5	1862	$2,195	$1.18	5d	1	0.80mi
4510 W Sun Quest St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1177	$2,800	$2.38	3d	1	0.80mi
3313 W Millstone Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,595	$1.18	25d	1	0.80mi
4524 W Jupiter St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,845	$1.48	45d	1	0.82mi
8441 N Thornydale Rd Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1735	$2,050	$1.18	5d	1	0.85mi
3346 W Starfall Pl Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,700	$1.65	5d	1	0.86mi
8305 N Midnight Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1486	$1,595	$1.07	16d	1	0.88mi
8555 N Thornydale Rd Oro Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1735	$2,000	$1.15	45d	1	0.88mi
4398 W Veranda St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,820	$1.33	4d	1	0.94mi
4050 W Aerie Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,954	$2.44	3d	17	0.97mi
3220 W Ina Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,730	$1.62	45d	1	1.03mi
3220 W Ina Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,871	$1.59	46d	1	1.03mi
3220 W Ina Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,848	$1.57	13d	1	1.03mi
7406 N Boston Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,750	$1.60	25d	1	1.03mi
8455 N Placita de la Manzana Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1627	$1,825	$1.12	45d	1	1.10mi
3294 W Treece Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1295	$1,750	$1.35	25d	1	1.11mi
3248 W Treece Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,745	$1.35	16d	1	1.12mi
8323 N Shannon Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1293	$1,755	$1.36	45d	1	1.13mi
8323 N Shannon Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1655	$2,110	$1.27	23d	1	1.13mi
4105 W Aerie Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1257	$4,300	$3.42	3d	24	1.14mi
3201 W Ina Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	803	$1,895	$2.36	45d	34	1.14mi
3777 W Horizon Hills Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,750	$1.39	25d	1	1.24mi
8704 N Frampton Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,750	$1.24	45d	1	1.32mi
3213 W Northstar Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1270	$1,800	$1.42	45d	1	1.33mi
3073 W Placita Montessa Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,900	$1.28	25d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $264,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $277,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    listed $277,000 Active 290-char remark
18. 2025-07-01
    historical $1,795
19. 2025-04-22
    price $1,795
20. 2025-04-05
    listed $1,800
21. 2025-04-03
    historical $1,800
22. 2025-03-25
    listed $1,800
23. 2025-03-25
    historical $1,800
24. 2025-03-07
    price $1,800
25. 2025-02-17
    price $1,850
26. 2025-01-21
    listed $1,975
27. 2024-12-31
    historical
28. 2024-12-12
    listed $360,000 Active
29. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $233,500 Closed

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Lovely, well maintained home. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath split-level home is located in northwest Tucson on a large cul-de-sac lot with NO HOA! Open & spacious with eat in area. Large master bedroom, dual pane windows, new roof, solar water heater, reverse osmosis water filter and softener. Pebbletec on pool with easy care and RV parking!. Close to shopping and I10.

30. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $233,500

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Lovely, well maintained home. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath split-level home is located in northwest Tucson on a large cul-de-sac lot with NO HOA! Open & spacious with eat in area. Large master bedroom, dual pane windows, new roof, solar water heater, reverse osmosis water filter and softener. Pebbletec on pool with easy care and RV parking!. Close to shopping and I10.

31. 2021-01-05
    historical Active Contingent

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Lovely, well maintained home. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath split-level home is located in northwest Tucson on a large cul-de-sac lot with NO HOA! Open & spacious with eat in area. Large master bedroom, dual pane windows, new roof, solar water heater, reverse osmosis water filter and softener. Pebbletec on pool with easy care and RV parking!. Close to shopping and I10.

32. 2020-12-09
    listed $240,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Lovely, well maintained home. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath split-level home is located in northwest Tucson on a large cul-de-sac lot with NO HOA! Open & spacious with eat in area. Large master bedroom, dual pane windows, new roof, solar water heater, reverse osmosis water filter and softener. Pebbletec on pool with easy care and RV parking!. Close to shopping and I10.

33. 2010-04-01
    soldstatus $145,000
34. 2010-04-01
    soldstatus $145,000
35. 2010-02-09
    listed $149,000
36. 1973-10-01
    soldstatus $26,755

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$2,295
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$6,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casas Adobes

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2353

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casas Adobes, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 67,940
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $76,271
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1242.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 21% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -254.77%
• Current HPI: 275.8273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+886.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $264,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-03 Listed $277,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-01 Rental Removed $1,795 TARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $1,795 TARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listed for Rent $1,800 TARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Rental Removed $1,800 TARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed for Rent $1,800 TARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Rental Removed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-21 Listed for Rent $1,975 APPFOLIO
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-12-12 Listed $360,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $233,500 Public Records
• 2021-02-23 Sold (MLS) $233,500 MLSSAZ
• 2021-01-05 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2020-12-09 Listed $240,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-01 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-02-09 Listed $149,000 MLSSAZ
• 1973-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,755 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,295 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.