2530 Violet Theo Ln · Round Rock, TX 78665

$294,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,363 sqft · Other · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 8,712 sqft lot $216/sqft · 5% below area Est $312k · 5% under $112/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MAY ESTIMATED COMPLETION. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Explore the Wicklow floorplan at our Avery Centre community in Round Rock, TX. The Wicklow offers 1,363 square feet of living space across 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2-stories. As you enter the home you'll notice the open concept layout with a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and beautiful Silestone® countertops. You'll also find a convenient powder bathroom on the first floor, perfect for guests. Towards the back of the home, you'll find the backyard with a covered back patio and detached garage. Upstairs is where the main bedroom and adjoined bathroom is located. The main bathroom features a double vanity sink and walk-in shower. The two other bedrooms are also located upstairs and each include carpeted floors and a storage closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Open concept layout
• $112 HOA

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FULL IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• AMERICA'S SMART HOME PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.7% in Round Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#56 in TX, #2,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Round Rock ISD (urban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #86 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 450 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,513 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,840
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: -5.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-66,625
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-98,617
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78665

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 450
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,304/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,393

Max offer price $260,379

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2517 Violet Theo Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	1757	$2,199	$1.25	22d	1	0.06mi
2523 Rose Archer Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	3.0	1724	$2,195	$1.27	44d	1	0.06mi
2405 Wallin Bradley Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.08mi
2505 Liam Aurora Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,075	$1.20	8d	1	0.12mi
2921 Diego Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1807	$2,500	$1.38	18d	1	0.16mi
2325 Pearson Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,995	$1.19	44d	1	0.63mi
2408 Oscar Eli Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,095	$1.35	44d	1	0.65mi
2122 Bluffstone Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,795	$1.20	15d	1	0.74mi
2304 Jack Nora Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	1700	$2,400	$1.41	18d	1	0.80mi
1531 N Red Bud Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.5	2362	$2,199	$0.93	8d	3	0.84mi
1531 N Red Bud Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.5	2362	$2,199	$0.93	13d	3	0.84mi
2609 Butler Way Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$1,895	$1.05	8d	1	0.88mi
2950 E Old Settlers Blvd #4 Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	1340	$1,850	$1.38	18d	1	0.90mi
3328 Lauren Nicole Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$2,395	$1.30	11d	1	1.02mi
3801 N A.W. Grimes Blvd Unit B1-HC Round Rock, TX	2.0	2.0	1127	$1,699	$1.51	44d	1	1.02mi
1100 Jillian Ct Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,900	$1.57	4d	1	1.03mi
1850 Settlers Glen Dr #1603 Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,278	$1.38	18d	1	1.19mi
1850 Settlers Glen Dr #1801 Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	1783	$2,100	$1.18	18d	1	1.19mi
3401 Pauling Loop Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,025	$1.21	4d	1	1.22mi
51 Limmer Loop Unit 1 Round Rock, TX	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,369	$1.74	24d	1	1.42mi
1509 Jackie Robinson Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.42mi
5652 Porano Cir Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1591	$2,095	$1.32	44d	1	1.48mi
1506 Campanella Cv Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,050	$1.23	8d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $112 · $1,344/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1225 chars)

   MAY ESTIMATED COMPLETION. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Explore the Wicklow floorplan at our Avery Centre community in Round Rock, TX. The Wicklow offers 1,363 square feet of living space across 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2-stories. As you enter the home you'll notice the open concept layout with a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and beautiful Silestone® countertops. You'll also find a convenient powder bathroom on the first floor, perfect for guests. Towards the back of the home, you'll find the backyard with a covered back patio and detached garage. Upstairs is where the main bedroom and adjoined bathroom is located. The main bathroom features a double vanity sink and walk-in shower. The two other bedrooms are also located upstairs and each include carpeted floors and a storage closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

2. 2026-03-03
   price $294,990 1225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1225 chars)

   MAY ESTIMATED COMPLETION. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Explore the Wicklow floorplan at our Avery Centre community in Round Rock, TX. The Wicklow offers 1,363 square feet of living space across 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2-stories. As you enter the home you'll notice the open concept layout with a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and beautiful Silestone® countertops. You'll also find a convenient powder bathroom on the first floor, perfect for guests. Towards the back of the home, you'll find the backyard with a covered back patio and detached garage. Upstairs is where the main bedroom and adjoined bathroom is located. The main bathroom features a double vanity sink and walk-in shower. The two other bedrooms are also located upstairs and each include carpeted floors and a storage closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

3. 2026-02-09
   listed $314,390 Active 1225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1225 chars)

   MAY ESTIMATED COMPLETION. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built. Explore the Wicklow floorplan at our Avery Centre community in Round Rock, TX. The Wicklow offers 1,363 square feet of living space across 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2-stories. As you enter the home you'll notice the open concept layout with a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and beautiful Silestone® countertops. You'll also find a convenient powder bathroom on the first floor, perfect for guests. Towards the back of the home, you'll find the backyard with a covered back patio and detached garage. Upstairs is where the main bedroom and adjoined bathroom is located. The main bathroom features a double vanity sink and walk-in shower. The two other bedrooms are also located upstairs and each include carpeted floors and a storage closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,398 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,094/yr (+$341/mo · 313.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$1,304
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − HOA: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Round Rock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838080
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,378
• Composite: 49.33/100
• National rank: #2022
• State rank: #86 of 826 in TX

Livability — Round Rock

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #2184

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Round Rock, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 184,922
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 66,171
• Household income: $122,680
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2036.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.58%
• Current HPI: 179.7075
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $294,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $314,390 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+61.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,304 · -13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.