11427 Blackwell Rd Unit 2 · Gold Hill, OR 97502

$49,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Land public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1997 $68/sqft · 62% above area ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• Country living
• Metal roof
• Park like setting

Tags

• COUNTRY LIVING
• PARK LIKE SETTING
• NEW LAMINATE FLOOR
• INTERIOR PAINT
• METAL ROOF
• FULL BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $938 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 2.4% in Gold Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#220 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.21%
• DSCR: 4.61
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $30,604
• List price: $49,500
• Delta: 61.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $53,850
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.58×
• Total profit: $132,803
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $282/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $938

Break-even live

Break-even rent $384

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,500 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,500 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,500 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,500 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,500 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,500 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,500 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,500 Active 276 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,500 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,500 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,500 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 266 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,500 Active 265 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $50,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

17. 2026-04-23
    price $55,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

18. 2026-02-26
    price $58,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

19. 2026-01-26
    status Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

20. 2026-01-06
    historical 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

21. 2025-10-06
    price $59,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

22. 2025-08-26
    price $62,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

23. 2025-08-18
    listed $68,000 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Discover country living in a quaint, park like setting. This move-in- ready 2 bed, 1 bath home features new laminate floor, interior paint and a metal roof. It also has a full bonus room that could be used for a home office, gym or extra storage. Minutes from Central Point, Gold Hill and easy access to I-5. Schedule a tour today!

24. 2025-07-16
    historical
25. 2025-06-26
    listed $68,000 Active
26. 2023-01-24
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed
27. 2023-01-09
    status Pending
28. 2022-12-16
    price $58,500
29. 2022-10-25
    price $66,500
30. 2022-10-03
    price $69,900
31. 2022-09-15
    listed $75,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $282 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 70.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$282
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $11,101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,664
• After-tax cash flow: $8,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Gold Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #14969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 650.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-33.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $50,000 MLSCO
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $55,000 MLSCO
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $58,000 MLSCO
• 2026-01-26 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $59,000 MLSCO
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $62,000 MLSCO
• 2025-08-18 Listed $68,000 MLSCO
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-06-26 Listed $68,000 MLSCO
• 2023-01-24 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MLSCO
• 2023-01-09 Pending — MLSCO
• 2022-12-16 Price Changed $58,500 MLSCO
• 2022-10-25 Price Changed $66,500 MLSCO
• 2022-10-03 Price Changed $69,900 MLSCO
• 2022-09-15 Listed $75,500 MLSCO

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $282 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.