165 Nix Ln · Centralia, WA 98531

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured · 86 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition $84/sqft · 20% above area Est $125k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to comfort and affordable living in Country Life Estates. This refreshed manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, two full bathrooms and a thoughtful layout with two separate living areas—perfect for spreading out, entertaining, or creating a home office or hobby space. The spacious primary suite features a large walk-in closet and a private bath complete with a dual sink vanity and relaxing corner soaking tub—your own retreat at the end of the day. The kitchen is both functional and inviting with oak cabinetry, new appliances, and a convenient step-in pantry for extra storage. Recent updates include new flooring throughout, newer interior and exterior paint, plus new p

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• Private bath
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• CORNER SOAKING TUB
• OAK CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.75%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,000
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 19.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
169 Nix Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	3mo	$141,000	$84	86
171 Nix Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	18mo	$190,000	$107	84
168 Nix Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+4%)	21mo	$145,000	$78	75
172 Nix Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-14%)	2mo	$80,000	$52	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,044
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $59,519
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    status Active
18. 2026-03-12
    status Pending
19. 2026-02-13
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $4,936
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $5,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 26 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This refreshed manufactured home offers a good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace blinds — Improves light control and aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality
• Both Replace flooring — Modernizes and improves durability
• Both Replace cabinetry — Modernizes and improves storage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace blinds — Improves light control and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Modernizes and improves durability ↑
• Both Replace cabinetry — Modernizes and improves storage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $149,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid