17558 Caufield Rd · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 116 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1995 Fair condition 0.68 ac lot $116/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.6

Listing remarks MLS

Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

Key facts

• No cdd
• Flat corner lot
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• FLAT CORNER LOT
• NO HOA
• NO CDD
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Mary Giella Elementary School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 596 students, 76% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 316 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,992
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -50.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19037 Bowman Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	924 (+7%)	9mo	$205,000	$222	61
16639 Petras Ln	1.35mi	3/2.0	952 (+10%)	16mo	$142,000	$149	35
18825 Bowman Rd	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	720 (-17%)	19mo	$200,000	$278	30
17719 Bosley Dr	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+25%)	13mo	$283,500	$263	29
18504 Saint Paul Dr	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	728 (-16%)	28mo	$129,000	$177	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-6,002
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,877
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $179,950 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +58.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $954/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $817

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $189	+0% $160	+5% $132	+10% $104
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $120	+0% $160	+5% $201	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $186	base $160	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18640 County Line Rd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.5	684	$1,325	$1.94	54d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residentialLot approximately 0.68 acres (0.5 to less than 1 acre)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tankCable availableElectricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide homeOne storyNorthwest facingCrawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl sidingMetal roofBuilt on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Wood fencingOther exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry room inside

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $99,999 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   pricestatus $99,999 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-29
   price $129,999
5. 2026-03-25
   status Active
6. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-18
   status Active
8. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-02
   price $139,990
10. 2026-02-23
    price $149,990
11. 2026-02-05
    price $161,999
12. 2026-01-22
    price $164,999
13. 2026-01-12
    price $169,990
14. 2026-01-06
    listed $179,999 Active
15. 2025-04-28
    price $180,000
16. 2025-03-10
    listed $200,000 Active
17. 2022-06-28
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

18. 2022-05-07
    status Pending 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

19. 2022-05-02
    price $210,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

20. 2022-04-17
    price $215,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

21. 2022-04-11
    listed $225,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

22. 2021-11-19
    historical
23. 2021-11-01
    listed $55,000 Active
24. 2021-10-19
    historical
25. 2021-09-16
    price $30,000
26. 2021-08-27
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$954
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $319
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$77
• After-tax cash flow: $1,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $21,600–$38,880 screening

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior and interior, including painting, flooring, and appliance upgrades. While it has a good roof, the overall condition is fair, and substantial work is needed to bring it up to a good condition.

Deferred maintenance Est. $10,000–$30,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No roof visible, but structure appears to be a mobile home, which often requires frequent roof maintenance.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting.
• Major Kitchen appliances — No visible appliances.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — No visible fixtures.
• Major Flooring — Carpeted areas appear worn.
• Major Paint — Paint appears chipped and worn.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Improves functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Improves comfort and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances aesthetics and value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Dr. Mary Giella Elementary School D- FL #1,234/2,144 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 Middle Crews Lake Middle School. D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Hudson High School F FL #264/667 Nat'l #7,501/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• County: Pasco · 570,045 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544
• Household income: $73,878
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residentialLot approximately 0.68 acres (0.5 to less than 1 acre)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tankCable availableElectricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide homeOne storyNorthwest facingCrawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl sidingMetal roofBuilt on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Wood fencingOther exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry room inside

Price history

+271.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $129,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $139,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $149,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $161,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $164,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $169,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $179,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-28 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-02 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-17 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-11 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-01 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-16 Price Changed $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-27 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+56.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $954 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.