17558 Caufield Rd · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$129,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1995 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

Key facts

• No cdd
• Flat corner lot
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• FLAT CORNER LOT
• NO HOA
• NO CDD
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residential; Lot approximately 0.68 acres (0.5 to less than 1 acre)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Northwest facing; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Mary Giella Elementary School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 596 students, 76% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,299 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.43%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $26,115
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $83,433
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $954/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   price $129,999
3. 2026-03-25
   status Active
4. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-18
   status Active
6. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-02
   price $139,990
8. 2026-02-23
   price $149,990
9. 2026-02-05
   price $161,999
10. 2026-01-22
    price $164,999
11. 2026-01-12
    price $169,990
12. 2026-01-06
    listed $179,999 Active
13. 2025-04-28
    price $180,000
14. 2025-03-10
    listed $200,000 Active
15. 2022-06-28
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

16. 2022-05-07
    status Pending 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

17. 2022-05-02
    price $210,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

18. 2022-04-17
    price $215,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

19. 2022-04-11
    listed $225,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great rental or place to call home. Convenient location next to Veteran's 589 and County Line Road. No HOA/CDD on a flat corner lot. More than a 1/2 acre! Plenty of room for RV parking, bring your toys and imagination! Updated manufactured home. NEW metal roof! Freshly painted, new laminate main room flooring, new carpet in bedrooms and ceramic tile in baths. New exterior paint. Fence along the back length of the property. HVAC-2015. Paved road.

20. 2021-11-19
    historical
21. 2021-11-01
    listed $55,000 Active
22. 2021-10-19
    historical
23. 2021-09-16
    price $30,000
24. 2021-08-27
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$954
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,726
• After-tax cash flow: $7,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+271.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $129,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $139,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $149,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $161,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $164,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $169,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $179,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-28 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-02 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-17 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-11 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-01 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-16 Price Changed $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-27 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+56.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $954 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.