449 Valley Ave SE · Washington, DC 20032

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Townhouse public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1948 2,500 sqft lot Est $308k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home presents a unique opportunity with endless potential. Featuring a walk-up basement and a fenced backyard, the property offers a flexible layout and ample outdoor space. Conveniently situated near major commuter routes, public transportation, shopping, and dining. Whether you are looking to restore, redesign, or reimagine, this property provides a great canvas in an established neighborhood.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Flexible layout
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Below-grade unfinished area of 648; Above-grade finished area of 1,296
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Semi-detached home; Above-grade and below-grade living areas
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Built year recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on first upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas heating fuel; Electric cooling fuel
• Interior features: Assessor-recorded living area; Walkout unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,325/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 4530% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $194k implies a 846% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,180 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.95%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
157 Wilmington Pl SE	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,200 (-7%)	4mo	$240,000	$200	69
657 Brandywine St SE	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,416 (+9%)	2mo	$363,000	$256	67
766 Congress St SE	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-1%)	11mo	$425,000	$332	65
4003 Blakney Ln SE	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,320 (+2%)	11mo	$314,000	$238	63
406 Brandywine St SE	0.26mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (-11%)	1mo	$255,000	$221	61
4613 Springmaid Ln	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,292 (-0%)	8mo	$345,000	$267	61
139 Wilmington Pl SE	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,436 (+11%)	8mo	$349,900	$244	59
427 Brandywine St SE	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-11%)	1mo	$184,300	$160	58
3330 Brothers Pl SE	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-6%)	1mo	$160,000	$131	58
1203 Congress St SE	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+5%)	4mo	$375,000	$276	56
322 Raleigh St SE	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,268 (-2%)	7mo	$250,000	$197	48
1260 Barnaby Ter SE	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,134 (-12%)	2mo	$207,100	$183	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,437
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $52,403
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20032

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,910/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 Atlantic St SE Unit 7 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	989	$1,699	$1.72	18d	1	0.24mi
147 Mississippi Ave SE Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,795	$1.92	22d	1	0.27mi
4030 Livingston Rd SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,648	$1.65	24d	1	0.37mi
101 Wayne Pl SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	919	$1,695	$1.84	22d	1	0.37mi
150 Upsal St SE Washington, DC	2.0	3.0	1695	$3,200	$1.89	24d	1	0.38mi
4040 Livingston Rd SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,256	$1.26	24d	1	0.38mi
3930 1st St SE Unit 301 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	24d	1	0.40mi
10 Halley Pl SE Washington, DC	2.0–3.0	1.0	906	$2,400	$2.65	24d	3	0.42mi
3320 6th St SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	690	$1,398	$2.03	3d	25	0.44mi
864 Bellevue St SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1628	$1,700	$1.04	24d	1	0.47mi
742 Congress St SE Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1744	$3,000	$1.72	17d	1	0.48mi
820 Southern Ave SE Washington, DC	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	840	$1,600	$1.90	3d	65	0.51mi
4001 S Capitol St SW Washington, DC	3.0	1.0–2.0	782	$2,557	$3.27	14d	1	0.53mi
911 Bellevue St SE Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1820	$3,400	$1.87	24d	1	0.56mi
3517 Brothers Pl SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	24d	1	0.58mi
4805 Springmaid Ln Oxon Hill, MD	3.0	2.5	1296	$2,600	$2.01	19d	1	0.59mi
1121 Varney St SE Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1400	$3,000	$2.14	24d	1	0.60mi
4306 Halley Ter SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1270	$3,000	$2.36	11d	1	0.61mi
4281 S Capitol St SW Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1412	$2,900	$2.05	24d	1	0.63mi
4285 S Capitol St SW Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1152	$3,500	$3.04	15d	1	0.64mi
4287 S Capitol St SW Washington, DC	2.0	3.5	1412	$2,575	$1.82	24d	1	0.64mi
3210 8th St SE #1 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1106	$2,395	$2.17	24d	1	0.66mi
607 Southern Ave SE Oxon Hill, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	20d	1	0.70mi
349 Parkland Pl SE Unit B Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	20d	1	0.73mi
349 Parkland Pl SE Unit A Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	24d	1	0.73mi
615 Malcolm X Ave SE Unit F Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,508	$2.28	3d	1	0.76mi
44 Forrester St SW Unit 3 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,450	$2.04	24d	1	0.79mi
3325 13th St SE Apt 12 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	901	$2,500	$2.77	24d	1	0.79mi
3325 13th St SE Apt 1 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	902	$2,500	$2.77	2d	1	0.79mi
802 Malcolm X Ave SE Washington, DC	4.0	1.0	1140	$3,150	$2.76	24d	1	0.82mi
2913 8th St SE #3101 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	14d	1	0.83mi
716 Audrey Ln Oxon Hill, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,500	$1.86	19d	1	0.88mi
4334 Martin Luther King Jr Ave SW Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,200	$2.42	24d	1	0.88mi
425 Oakwood St SE Unit 425 Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1008	$3,500	$3.47	24d	1	0.90mi
1306 Sutler Ter Oxon Hill, MD	4.0	2.5	1320	$3,079	$2.33	3d	1	0.92mi
118 Galveston St SW Washington, DC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,130	$2.24	2d	10	0.93mi
2942 2nd St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,539	$2.02	3d	9	0.94mi
1439 Southern Ave SE Oxon Hill, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$2,342	$2.17	44d	1	0.94mi
1201 Oak Dr SE Washington, DC	3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$2,220	$2.60	2d	19	0.94mi
446 Mellon St SE #2 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	928	$2,400	$2.59	15d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $194,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    listed $194,000 Active
15. 1978-10-13
    soldstatus $20,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,910
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable income: $3,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$730
• After-tax cash flow: $5,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 40,920
• Household income: $49,139
• Rent vs Own: 77.4% rent · 22.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4530.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.34%
• Current HPI: 326.4077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

+846.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $194,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1978-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,125 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.