409 S Water St · Warren, IL 61087

$109,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · Other · 60 Days on market

Built 1920 0.50 ac lot $97/sqft · 27% above area Est $86k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fresh updates and flexible potential make this property a standout opportunity! Recent improvements include new interior and exterior paint, new windows, new kitchen and bathroom flooring, new upstairs carpet, and added insulation with new drywall and ceiling upstairs. The kitchen also features a brand new stove and refrigerator, adding to the home’s move-in-ready appeal. Additional highlights include a newer metal roof and a detached 2-car garage. Inside, you’ll find a main-floor bedroom and two additional bedrooms upstairs (one is a walk-through), offering flexible space for a variety of needs. The large half-acre lot provides plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools and downtown, this property is ideal as a primary residence or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• New exterior paint
• New kitchen flooring
• New upstairs carpet

Tags

• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW KITCHEN FLOORING
• NEW BATHROOM FLOORING
• NEW UPSTAIRS CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#290 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Warren CUSD 205 (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #273 of 919 in IL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Jo Daviess County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jo Daviess County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $109k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $104,945 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.97%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,761
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: 27.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $65,789
• Equity at exit: $98,196

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.18×
• Total profit: $188,686
• Equity at exit: $211,763

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61087

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,334/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $922

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $132	+0% $101	+5% $70	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $59	+0% $101	+5% $142	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $129	base $101	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $109,000 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $109,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $109,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $109,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $109,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $109,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-04-10
    listed $120,000 Active 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    Fresh updates and flexible potential make this property a standout opportunity! Recent improvements include new interior and exterior paint, new windows, new kitchen and bathroom flooring, new upstairs carpet, and added insulation with new drywall and ceiling upstairs. The kitchen also features a brand new stove and refrigerator, adding to the home’s move-in-ready appeal. Additional highlights include a newer metal roof and a detached 2-car garage. Inside, you’ll find a main-floor bedroom and two additional bedrooms upstairs (one is a walk-through), offering flexible space for a variety of needs. The large half-acre lot provides plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near schools and downtown, this property is ideal as a primary residence or investment opportunity.

12. 2025-12-29
    soldstatus $49,000
13. 2025-12-23
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Great starter or rental home. Newer metal roof on the house, newer shingles on 2 car detached garage. Master bed on main floor. Two bedrooms upstairs but do have to walk through one to get to the other. Close to school and downtown. Large half acre lot. Long time tenant would like to continue renting if a investor purchases the property. Home needs some TLC but offers a good return for the right investor.

14. 2025-10-15
    status Pending 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Great starter or rental home. Newer metal roof on the house, newer shingles on 2 car detached garage. Master bed on main floor. Two bedrooms upstairs but do have to walk through one to get to the other. Close to school and downtown. Large half acre lot. Long time tenant would like to continue renting if a investor purchases the property. Home needs some TLC but offers a good return for the right investor.

15. 2025-08-11
    listed $59,900 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Great starter or rental home. Newer metal roof on the house, newer shingles on 2 car detached garage. Master bed on main floor. Two bedrooms upstairs but do have to walk through one to get to the other. Close to school and downtown. Large half acre lot. Long time tenant would like to continue renting if a investor purchases the property. Home needs some TLC but offers a good return for the right investor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,334 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,904 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$570/yr (+$48/mo · 42.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,334
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,007
• − Management: −$1,007
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$139
• After-tax cash flow: $1,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren CUSD 205
• NCES district ID: 1740740
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $48,322
• Composite: 38.72/100
• National rank: #8384
• State rank: #273 of 919 in IL

Livability — Warren

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #290
• US rank: #5562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,648

Population outlook (Jo Daviess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,420 people
• By 2030: 19,405 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 17,244 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 15,357 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 11,760 · -42.4%
• By 2100: 8,355 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jo Daviess

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 40.8% · R 57.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: 10.5pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+16.5 2016: R+14.9 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.20%
• Current HPI: 161.8
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+100.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $120,000 NWIAR
• 2025-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-23 Sold (MLS) $50,000 NWIAR
• 2025-10-15 Pending — NWIAR
• 2025-08-11 Listed $59,900 NWIAR

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,334 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.