3490 Forsythe Ter · The Villages, FL 32162

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2004 6,000 sqft lot Est $306k · 7% under $398/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this super cute home for yourself located in America's friendliest home town. Featuring an open floor, the nicest stainless appliances money can buy, and a walk-in closet big enough for all of your wife's stuff. The built-in hand crafted features are stylish and functional. Featuring all the amenities that The Villages provide, and located off the beaten path of traffic and yet super close to everything. Golf courses, swimming pools, country clubs, night life, ya'll already know, I don't have to tell you this is the best place to live in central Florida.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Stainless appliances
• Open floor

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• HAND CRAFTED FEATURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD applies; Lot approximately 0.14 acres (60 x 100)
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $398 (includes HOA/association fees)
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $199); Association: The Villages Wendy; Senior community; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Irrigation system; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,013/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3562 Auburndale Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	2mo	$300,000	$216	90
3248 Williams Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	0mo	$375,000	$269	72
5162 NE 122nd Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-6%)	2mo	$260,000	$198	71
1253 Addison Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+3%)	2mo	$348,000	$242	68
1270 Northbrook Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+4%)	2mo	$315,300	$217	66
935 Kenova Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+13%)	0mo	$397,000	$253	61
3189 Atwell Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+6%)	0mo	$315,000	$213	56
3249 Mansfield St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+10%)	1mo	$336,000	$220	52
1289 Addison Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	1mo	$300,000	$240	49
1270 Weaton Ct	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	2mo	$265,000	$212	49
876 Radclife Berea Pl	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-12%)	2mo	$265,000	$216	48
3109 Archer Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+15%)	2mo	$400,000	$250	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,989
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-5,170
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,703/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$398
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,831

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3545 Idlewood Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$4,500	$3.63	21d	1	0.19mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	21d	1	0.38mi
3489 Cambria Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,745	$1.47	21d	1	0.44mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	21d	1	0.56mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	21d	1	0.57mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	21d	1	0.61mi
12020 Brush Hill Rd Oxford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$2,295	$2.42	21d	15	0.64mi
3207 Woodridge Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,200	$3.66	21d	1	0.65mi
3292 Riverton Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,100	$1.84	21d	1	0.73mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	21d	1	0.99mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	21d	1	1.07mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	21d	10	1.35mi
2864 Leicester Ter Unit 1525680P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,090	$1.85	21d	1	1.36mi
12246 N US Highway 301 Oxford, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1180	$1,875	$1.59	21d	7	1.41mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	21d	1	1.42mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	21d	1	1.46mi
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	21d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $398 · $4,776/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $285,000 Pending 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $285,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $285,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $285,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-05-23
   price $285,000
7. 2026-04-29
   price $289,000
8. 2026-04-10
   price $294,000
9. 2026-01-28
   listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,703
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,893
• − Management: −$2,893
• − HOA: −$4,776
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$2,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $2,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $294,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,703 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.